Monday, June 07, 2010

The BP oil apocalypse

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger's longtime cartoonist Marshall Ramsey has been coming up with some inspired images for the BP oil catastrophe in the Gulf. Like this one of June 3:


I hesitate to use the word "apocalypse" to describe events. But the root meaning of the word is appropriate for the BP oil gusher disaster. Because of its association with John's Apocalypse in the Book of Revelation, it has come to mean something like world-ending-disaster. Actually "revelation" is the translation of the Greek word αποκάλυψις/apokálypsis from which the English "apocalypse" is derived.

And the oil disaster in the Gulf is a revelation, and the world should take it that way. More specifically, the United States should take it that way, the Democratic Party included. (So should Republicans, but I'm trying to stay within the realm of the remotely feasible.)


Bill McKibben prods Obama in If There Was Ever a Moment to Seize Firedoglake 06/06/2010 to use this opportunity to dramatize the urgency of alternative energy development and climate change legislation. Our major pundits for the last couple of weeks have been wringing their hands about whether Obama in showing enough anger, which lets them indulge in theater criticism of Obama's appearances on the BP oil disaster. David "Bobo" Brooks is hoping that it will become Obama's Iranian hostage crisis. But Bobo had theater criticism too. On the PBS Newshour of 06/04/2010, he said:

I thought today was a good step [for Obama], just in theatrical terms, not the best step.

I still want to see him surrounded by fisherman, by regular folks down there. And he still hasn't done that. ...

But -- but people want to know that the communication with the government is two-way. And that doesn't mean you just sit with a series of government officials in your shirtsleeves around a table. It means you are in a non-governmental setting, where most people are, at a restaurant, maybe out on a boat with people.
Bobo doesn't find Obama's atmospherics entertaining enough. Yes, our star pundits really are this shallow.

Paul Barrett's article Obama and BP at Risk Over Oil Spill Bloomberg Business Week 06/03/2010 surprised me. Because he gives a very good explanation of not only how Obama has an opportunity to seize here, but also states some of the obvious problems with the "neoliberal" ideology of deregulation, social service cuts, and balanced-budget obsession that has done US and European economies so much damage:

This is a moment to think big and creatively. As distant as risky drilling rigs off Louisiana may seem from the New York financial laboratories where wizard bankers synthesized subprime credit derivatives, Obama could explain the important connections: how, after decades of antiregulatory fundamentalism in Washington, the feckless Minerals Management Service [MMS] became the Securities & Exchange Commission [SEC] of the oil business.

It is no coincidence that staff members at both agencies watched pornography on government computers when they should have been monitoring their respective beats. Although corruption and incompetence seem to have run deeper at the soon-to-be-dismantled MMS, the zeitgeist of the two places was similar, according to investigations and congressional hearings: Industry was to be trusted, even when government overseers had no more idea what transpired on the trading floor at Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns than they did on the ocean floor beneath the Gulf of Mexico.

The question is: What will Obama do about it?

One route to political rehabilitation would be to redefine how government interacts with business. The goal he should articulate is protecting capitalism—and the society it's intended to serve—from the tendency of the profit-minded to go to extremes. ...

As investigators reconstruct events leading up to Apr. 20, Sarah S. Elkind, an historian of politics and the environment at San Diego State University, warns against focusing on minutiae to the exclusion of the big picture. Within the MMS, she says, "The employees followed cues from political appointees during the Bush Administration and earlier Administrations, going back to 1980, and including Democrats as well as Republicans. The message was that government doesn't work, and industry always knows what it's doing. What did we expect the employees to do?" ...

Obama has spoken expansively about restoring respect for government service. His occasionally populist rhetoric aside, he has been solicitous of corporate interests, too. Recall the astonishing bailout of General Motors. Just three weeks before the Deepwater Horizon exploded, the President had proposed expanding offshore oil exploration, in part as a bid for Republican votes for stalled energy and climate legislation. At the time, Obama praised advances in drilling technology.

"Where I was wrong," he said on May 27, "was in my belief that the oil companies had their act together when it came to worst-case scenarios." By his own admission, this product of Harvard Law School and liberal South Side Chicago politics was mesmerized, along with everyone else, by the myth of industry omnipotence. ...

Until someone figures out how to fix BP's leak, the idea the President should stress is how to reframe the debate about oil, investment banking, and other technologically sophisticated industries. Obama should argue that we need better government oversight of business, not to harm it, but to nurture it. He could invoke the memory of the New Deal regulatory revolution, which shielded industry and finance from calls for socialism after the Great Depression.

He won't win over Tea Partiers who see the New Deal (and the income tax and civil rights laws) as constitutional infringements. But a majority in America may well be receptive to an appeal that Democratic pollster Douglas E. Schoen described this way in a roundtable on the politics of the spill on washingtonpost.com: "We are all in this together—not as corporations or populists, not as Democrats or Republicans, but as Americans working to solve the problem collectively." In a speech in Pittsburgh on the afternoon of June 2, Obama started in this direction, then swerved toward partisanship. The Republican agenda, he said, "basically offers two answers to every problem we face: more tax breaks for the wealthy and fewer rules for corporations." [my emphasis]
Except for the goody-goody rhetoric at the end about how we're all in the same boat and we just sit down and reason together - while the financial markets bankrupt the rest of the passengers and BP sprays us with oil - this is a very good description of what is wrong the neoliberal outlook.

The responsibility of democratic government is protect the public from corporate bandits. The profit motive drives people to do things that are damaging to society. Those things might not be illegal or unethical. If it's legal to create securities that are pure gambles on the prices of a country's bonds going down, investment bankers who pursue them are doing their jobs. But it's simply not the case that corporations and the public always have common interests. Corporations and cartels will always be able to afford PR firms and lobbyists to make their voices heard loud and clear to advocate their own narrow positions. The elected governments in a democracy should be equally as aggressive in defending the public interest against corporate recklessness.

Bill McKinbben is right. If there was ever a moment where a serious leader in Obama's position could use to jump-start a new narrative on the environment, one that challenges the destructive neoliberal consensus possessing the Democratic Party, the BP oil cataclysm is it. Obama hasn't stepped up the challenge and the opportunity yet.

While I'm on the topic, I'll mention a couple of other things about the popular pundit scripts. The Republicans are cheerfully trashing Obama for the disaster. But the point he made quoted above is plainly right: the GOP's approach "basically offers two answers to every problem we face: more tax breaks for the wealthy and fewer rules for corporations." And that's true. That's the Republicans' Predator State approach to government.

Barrett's article pointed out something that hadn't occurred to me. I'm skeptical whether the Obama administration, who believes in Look Forward Not Backward when it comes to prosecuting corporate criminals and torture perpetrators, will actually be aggressive in seeking legal charges against BP and its officials. But, when BP's stock was already dropping for fairly obvious reasons, the announcement of the criminal investigation was another whack to their stock value (although it would be near-impossible to say how much of the stock's decline is due to that particular factor):

Ivor Pether, who helps manage $9.2 billion at Royal London Asset Management, including BP stock, told Bloomberg News: "We're getting into share price territory where analysts speculate about takeover possibilities, because the loss of market value is much greater than the estimated 'worst case' costs." Buyers haven't surfaced yet, he added, "because the near-term uncertainty is so high." BP spokeswoman Sheila Williams declined to comment.

The company's woes grew worse when the Obama Administration announced June 1 that it will investigate potential criminal and civil violations related to the spill. "We will prosecute to the fullest extent of the law," U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said. While Holder didn't get into particulars, troubling facts have already surfaced. The House Energy & Commerce Committee released internal BP e-mail showing that company employees had worried six weeks before the rig explosion that workers were struggling to control the well below. A criminal indictment of BP and other companies involved in the accident—perhaps for infractions of the Clean Water Act or other environmental laws—"is very likely," David M. Uhlmann, a former chief of the Justice Dept.'s environmental crimes section, told Bloomberg. Uhlmann, who now teaches at the University of Michigan Law School, pointed out that after the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989, ExxonMobil (XOM) pleaded guilty to charges of that variety.

Another potential line of prosecutorial inquiry, and one that could have more severe effects on BP, would focus on whether executives lied in formal statements to the government. Depending on how high up the chain of command the probe went, a cover-up investigation could seal the fate of Chief Executive Tony Hayward and underscore questions about BP remaining independent. The company has said it will cooperate with investigators. [my emphasis]
Whacking BP's stock price is something that can be accomplished even within the straightjacket of neoliberal economic dogma.

And for all the pundit horse-race chatter about whether this is damaging Obama politically, opinion polls as of last week weren't showing any notable hit to Obama's general polling status. As Steve Lombardo reports for Pollster.com in The Gulf Oil Spill Is Not Katrina and Obama Is Not Bush 06/02/2010(emphasis in original):

At this point in time, there is little evidence that Obama's job rating has suffered substantial erosion because of the spill. While it may emerge over time, so far there is little sign of a negative effect on Obama's overall job approval: over the past month he has been consistently around the 47%-48% mark among registered voters. As we have said before, the economy is still far and away the number one issue for voters, and perceptions of it has far more impact on Obama's approval rating than the Gulf spill - at this point in time.
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posted at 1:37:00 PM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Sunday, June 06, 2010

Looking for a Democratic Watergate


President Gerald Ford with his chief of staff Rummyand Rummy's deputy, Dick Cheney

Joe Conason makes an important point about the worldview of today's Republican Party. They have made it one of their missions to find a Democratic Watergate, to pay back the Democrats for, as they see it, forcing Richard Nixon out of office in 1974. In No, this isn't "Watergate" (and never will be) Salon 06/03/2010, he writes:

The quest for a Democratic Watergate that has preoccupied Republicans for more than three decades may never achieve fulfillment but surely will never end. Impeaching Bill Clinton promised satisfaction only to bring deeper frustration -- which must be one of the many reasons that we now hear politicians and pundits announcing the arrival of "Obama's Watergate" (and also why they never say "Obama's Whitewater").
The latter is a reference to the Joe Sestak job-offer non-scandal. Conason reminds us of what Watergate was:

"Watergate" was the place where the president's henchmen staged a "third-rate burglary" of the Democratic National Committee headquarters on a June night in 1972, but its historical definition is the vast gangsterism of the Nixon regime. Watergate involved no political job offers, but a series of burglaries, warrantless domestic wiretaps, illegal spying, campaign dirty tricks, and assorted acts of thuggery by a group of goons whose leaders included G. Gordon Liddy and the late E. Howard Hunt. Watergate meant a coverup of those felonies with more felonies, set up by lawyers and bureaucrats who collected cash payoffs from major corporations and then handed out hush money and secret campaign slush funds. Watergate implicated dozens of perps, from Hunt and Liddy all the way up to the president, his palace guard, and his crooked minions at the highest levels of the Justice Department, the FBI and the CIA.
Not everyone went free in that one. But Nixon did, thanks to the shameful pardon that President Jerry Ford, that great Republican moderate, gave him. (Did I mention that Dick Cheney Donald Rumsfeld was Ford's chief of staff and Dick Cheney was Rummy's assistant?) That began an ugly tradition, which has reached the point last week that former President George W. Bush admitted to ordering the water torture ("waterboarding"), an act that is unmistakably a crime, a crime for which the US executed at least one Japanese official convicted in a war crimes trial after the Second World War of having ordered. And Bush does so in public, unashamed, without apparent concern that he might be prosecuted.

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posted at 11:39:00 PM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Friday, June 04, 2010

The global war against Islam (or a fantasized version of it)

Department of Defense analyst Thomas McCabe's The Strategic Failures of al Qaeda Parameters (Spring 2010) seems at first like a pragmatic assessment of Al Qa'ida's effective demise as a significant force in world politics.

But the article is mainly an ideological justification for permanent war against the Muslim Menace. There's American triumphalism:

Immediately following 9/11, America showed an unprecedented ability to move quickly and with overwhelming force. Since then, the United States continues to display an impressive capacity to rapidly adapt strategically and tactically, while demonstrating impressive staying power in Iraq and Afghanistan, although many might say in Iraq it was a close call. While al Qaeda is undoubtedly hoping that the current turmoil in the world economy presages the collapse of the United States, a far likelier outcome is that once the initial panic passes the world will look pretty much like it did before, with America in fundamentally the same position — at the center.
As a statement of the obvious, that the United States will be the world's predominant military power for the foreseeable future, the deeply flawed response of the Cheney-Bush administration to the 9/11 attacks, followed now by Obama administration spectacularly ill-advised escalation of the Afghanistan War, have drastically weakened the credibility of the US as a world leader.

We also see in this paragraph the basic trick that underlies the entire article. It's the discussion of "Al Qaeda" as a massive, deadly, long term menace on a level with a hostile major power. Al Qa'ida, and here I'm referring to the remains of the group headed by Osama bin Laden, probably is "hoping that the current turmoil in the world economy presages the collapse of the United States". But so what? Lots of tiny sects, some of them with violent intent and capabilities, have all sorts of malign hopes for the fate of the United States. But McCabe uses the grandiose framework of evaluating the flaws of "Al Qaeda's" strategic assumptions to advocate for the need for the US to indefinitely fight a vaguely-defined Islamic threat.


His framework also shows in this claim: "After attacking the United States (and before), al Qaeda repeatedly expanded its theater of operations to embrace a greater portion of the world." But the biggest expansion of actual war has been the completely unnecessary American invasion of Iraq and the other decisions that leave us fighting militarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan nearly nine years after the 9/11 attacks in 2001, with lower-level sporadic acts of war in Yemen and Somalia, and some unknown number of covert operations in places like Iran.

The active foreign terrorist threats currently confronting the United States may draw some inspiration from Al Qa'ida's actions and doctrines. But it's unlikely that Bin Laden's organization, to the extent that it exists at all, has much direct role in instigating them, much less exerting meaningful command-and-control authority over them. Groups like "Al Qa'ida in Iraq" were Salafi extremists groups, but their actual connection to Bin Laden was very tenuous. McCabe's underlying assumption of Al Qaeda as some kind of world power challenging American vital interests all over the world is a bad joke.

This is a good example of the problem with his argument:

Believing in a very narrow Wahhabi interpretation of Sunni Islam—an especially rigid, austere, and intolerant fundamentalist interpretation—al Qaeda and other jihadis have repeatedly tried to encourage, or force, local Muslims to follow their practices and beliefs whether this was acceptable to the local populace or not. In Algeria, the jihadi insurgents were often extreme even by al Qaeda standards and routinely murdered those whom they defined as un-Islamic for such petty crimes as speaking French or not wearing proper Islamic dress. Over time, most of the population came to support the government, however reluctantly. Al Qaeda’s recent attempt to revive the Algerian civil war has not met with much popular support.
The argument that the Wahhabi variety of Islam, the one sponsored by Saudi Arabia, is the basis of Bin Laden-style jihadism is a favorite of the neoconservatives. But, as actual scholars of Islam like Juan Cole have explained, Bin Laden's jihadist ideas derived from the Egyptian extremist Sayyim Qutb are a violent extremist brand of Salafism, which is not Wahhabism. After all, Bin Laden's most important target has been the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy which is the chief international sponsor of Wahhabi Islam.

And the notion that the Algerian fundamentalists and the conflicts involving them are somehow "Al Qaeda" or like it, as well as the idea that what still exists of the actual Al Qa'ida could reignite the Algerian civil war of the 1990s, strike me as really pretty silly.

McCabe does make some interesting and probably valid points about how jihadist type groups (not just Bin Laden's Al Qa'ida) has alienated other Muslims. But that whole line of argument about the strategic failures of his mythic version of "Al Qaeda" leads up his own strategic proposal for a protracted US campaign against Islam. He suggest that a PR effort be part of it, though it's not at all clear how what he pictures would be different from the lame versions we've been using for years now. But in proposing this, he gives a key of his image of Islam:

Those in charge of this communication campaign should emphasize that the jihadis have sought to redefine Islam as a religion of intolerance at best and aggression and genocide at worst. Jihadists want to militarize the faith, so that Islam would literally become a terrorist religion rather than the religion of some terrorists, a redefinition that ideally will be widely opposed throughout the Muslim and Arab worlds. Unfortunately, in terms of Islamic theology and law, the jihadis may have a good case, as has been argued by a number of critics, or they may have a position that is at least as strong as their opponents’ arguments. Even if the jihadis do not dominate the debate, we have to be ready to deal with the fact that large segments of Muslim society choose to accept the jihadi arguments and ally with them. It is immaterial as to why they may follow these extremists, whether it is because they do not disagree or do not dare to disagree, out of religious solidarity, or because of hostility directed at the United States and the non-Muslim world. If large segments of Muslim society believe that extremist Islam truly reflects the basic tenets of Islam, the campaign will at least have removed any ambiguity. If the response is an embarrassed silence, we should make clear that, under the circumstances, such silence will be considered a “yes” in support of the extremists. [my emphasis]
It doesn't give a great deal of confidence in McCabe's general knowledge of Islam or his overall ability to assess sources that his one footnote reference to those "number of critics" who take that position is to a 2003 book (Robert Spencer, Onward Muslim Soldiers) from the highly far-right Regnery Press, which specializes in, well, cranking out rightwing books. In Balancing the Prophet Financial Times 04/27/2010, Karen Armstrong, a religious scholar who actually knows a lot about the religion, describes Robert Spencer's perspective:

People often seem eager to believe the worst about Muhammad, are reluctant to put his life in its historical perspective and assume the Jewish and Christian traditions lack the flaws they attribute to Islam. This entrenched hostility informs Robert Spencer’s misnamed biography The Truth about Muhammad, subtitled Founder of the World’s Most Intolerant Religion.

Spencer has studied Islam for 20 years, largely, it seems, to prove that it is an evil, inherently violent religion. He is a hero of the American right and author of the US bestseller The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam. Like any book written in hatred, his new work is a depressing read. Spencer makes no attempt to explain the historical, political, economic and spiritual circumstances of 7th-century Arabia, without which it is impossible to understand the complexities of Muhammad’s life. Consequently he makes basic and bad mistakes of fact. Even more damaging, he deliberately manipulates the evidence.
In the spirit of Spencer and his fellow Islamophobes, McCabe goes on to basically argue that "Al Qaeda" actually represents a huge number of the Muslims of the world, ending in a favorite Islamophobe argument:

First we need to understand that al Qaeda is not really an isolated phenomenon. In many ways, it is the tip of a large iceberg. It is not the lunatic fringe of Sunni Islam; it is the fanatic core of Sunni Islam, which is a profoundly
different phenomenon. Al Qaeda is an integral part of a broad and rather diverse spectrum of politicized Sunni Islam, and for that matter, of Sunni Islam as a whole. Unfortunately, the theological and ideological roots from which it grew still exist. Even if we are capable of destroying al Qaeda, we can expect it will have successors as long as those roots remain intact, especially those roots found in the Wahhabi interpretation of Islam, the Deobandi school in South Asia, and the Qutbist offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Only Muslims can destroy those roots, and so far they have failed to demonstrate a willingness to do so. [my emphasis]
He then repeats the factually-challenged neocon/Islamophobe contention that huge numbers of Muslims supported the 9/11 attacks:

The second thing we need to understand is that when al Qaeda attacked the United States on 9/11, it had significant and fairly widespread support throughout the Arab world. Much of this support is the result of a belief that al Qaeda was standing up to the United States and punishing it for policies that harmed or demeaned Muslims. To the degree that al Qaeda has lost that popular support, it was a direct result of the strategic and tactical errors highlighted earlier in this article. Unfortunately, that potential base of support still exists and may be tapped by more sophisticated or more selectively bloodthirsty extremists.
Actually, there was a remarkable degree of condemnation from Muslim countries, including those in the Arab world, of the attacks. McCabe is conjuring bogeymen here. If there was any distinct region of the world from which the expressions of sympathy for the US seemed to be comparatively muted, it was Latin America.

And McCabe invokes another neocon standard, the argument based heavily of Bernard Lewis' faulty generalizations, that Arabs are generally kind of screwed up and hostile and envious and resentful:

Unfortunately, the problem goes far beyond these negative perceptions
and is rooted not just in America’s foreign policy but also in the political culture, psychology, and pathologies of the region. Much of the support al Qaeda received was rooted in the frustration, rage, and malignance with which much of the Muslim Middle East views the world and its position in it. These attitudes long predated either the existence of Israel or the US invasion of Iraq, and, in fact, preceded the United States having a major presence in the region. Middle East Muslims look at the world, especially the United States, with a primordial sense of grievance and a profound sense of resentment, which al Qaeda has been able to turn into a global threat. Once a leading civilization, the Muslim Middle East has been surpassed and is now dominated by peoples it historically regarded as inferior. The Muslim Middle East has been increasingly marginalized due to the globalization of the world economy by the capitalist economic powers and is constantly threatened by a wide range of attractions related to western popular culture. Governments in Muslim territories are often regarded as corrupt, incompetent, and in the view of Islamic radicals, defeatist in the face of Islam’s enemies, and often depicted as servants of the opponents of Islam who have been put in power and kept in power by its enemies. [my emphasis]
The few constructive observations in McCabe's article don't detract from the fact that he is essentially enunciating an already-too-familiar framework for permanent war against Muslims in general and Arab Muslims in particular.

On Islamaophia, see also this recent piece by Bruce Lawrence, The Polite Islamophobia of the Intellectual Religion Dispatches 06/01/2010.

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Thursday, June 03, 2010

Crackpots and conformity

Dude, what did you put in that tea?

Gene Lyons looks at The tyranny of partisan groupthink Salon 06/02/2010, making the point that a figure like Rand Paul has to be taken seriously enough to refute his ideas rather than simply dismissing them because they are out of what current conventional wisdom assumes to be acceptable mainstream thought.

That doesn't mean that we need to treat crackpot ideas as anything other than crackpot. Or to argue endlessly with fanatics who have no intention of changing their minds, maybe not even the ability to do so. Or with people who have so little judgment about public affairs and news that they take Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck as reliable sources for factual information.

He cites a headline suggesting that far-right "libertarian" Rand Paul is crazy over his Bircher-style opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act:

Sophomoric is more like it. As the 47-year-old ophthalmologist was still in diapers back in 1964, he has no firsthand memory of the beatings, nightstick and dog attacks, murders and assassinations that accompanied the last days of Jim Crow. But anybody styling himself a "libertarian" ought to understand what "legal segregation" consisted of: systematic, state-sponsored denial of black citizens' constitutional rights.

Turning away black customers wasn't personal preference; across most of the South, serving them was against the law. Actually, I suspect that Dr. Paul does know that, and that his seeming naiveté masks a coded appeal to voters -- thankfully, a diminishing number -- who prate about "states' rights" as a means of expressing racial resentment.
Lyons refers to a column Merdity Oakley (itself apparently not freely available online) which provides examples from the days when the Pauls' brand of "libertarianism" dominated the Deep South:

Struck by the ritual nature of today's political rhetoric, Oakley reprinted several letters that first appeared in Little Rock newspapers during the traumatic Central High School integration crisis of September 1957.

Continue reading
"Dedicated left-wingers of the Supreme Court are remaking the Constitution and our lives," one man wrote. "The Court is now the combined creature of New Dealism and Modern Republicanism, bent on changing our constitutional government into a centralized, all powerful, socialist, labor welfare state."

Sound familiar? How about this? "When (President Eisenhower) came on TV last Monday night, it caused more people to have murder in their hearts by just looking at him than any other man that has ever lived."

Exchange Eisenhower for Obama, and both could have appeared yesterday.
Ed Sebesta has created a web archive where the White Citizen's Council newspapers of 1955-61 are available. It's article sound like a template for a lot of Beck's and Limbaugh's cracked commentary, though it often uses more explicitly white supremacist language.

Today's Tea Partiers, of course, are also known to use racially-charged language at times, too, as Mark Potok reportsin TeaParty.org Founder Labels Obama With Racial Terms Hatewatch 05/28/2010

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posted at 9:59:00 AM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Fallout from the Israeli flotilla raid

Israel's raid on the flotilla carrying humanitarian supplies to Gaza has further isolated Israel, probably put an to the possibility of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, and created new problems for the Obama administration's foreign policy.

Stephen Walt argues that the Gaza flotilla fiasco is another in a series of examples showing that Israel's foreign policy is strategically adrift. He puts it as the third in a series of notable setbacks, the Lebanon War of 2006 being one and the bombardment of Gaza in 2008-9 during the weeks leading up to Obama's inauguration the other. "None of these actions achieved its strategic objective; indeed, all of them are just more evidence of the steady deterioration in Israel's strategic thinking that we have witnessed since 1967." (Israel's latest brutal blunder Foreign Policy 05/31/2010)

Egypt has opened trade to Gaza through the Rafah crossing which it controls. But, as Juan Cole explains, this is almost certain to be temporary: "Were Egypt to defy Israel’s blockade for a long period of time or let in forbidden materials, the Israelis would almost certainly just bomb the entrance." (Eyewitnesses Confirm Israeli Gunplay; Egypt’s lifting of the Blockade likely Temporary Informed Comment 06/02/2010)


Craig Murray points out something that could turn out to be a serious complication of the attack, not least for the United States. Israel mounted an armed assault on a ship flying the Turkish flag in international waters. Murray writes (The Legal Position on the Israeli Attack 05/31/2010):

To attack a foreign flagged vessel in international waters is illegal. It is not piracy, as the Israeli vessels carried a military commission. It is rather an act of illegal warfare.

... In legal terms, the Turkish ship was Turkish territory.
So far as I've seen, Turkey is not threatening military retaliation or demanding that Israel hand over the commandos responsible for prosecution in Turkey. But it's certainly a possibility that Turkey will support another attempt to deliver goods to Gaza on a Turkish-flagged ship and provide it an armed escort while in international waters. On the conciliatory side, Turkey has also publicly indicated that they would normalize relations with Israel if Israel lifts the current Gaza blockade.

Turkey is formally an ally of the United States through the NATO Treaty. Israel is not. Even though senior American officials routinely describe the unbreakable bond between Israel and the United States, Israel has consistently refused American offers to conclude a formal defense treaty. Because a defense treaty would have to specify the borders being defended, and that would complicate Israel's annexation options.

Some Turkish politicians are suggesting there may be a link between an attack on a Turkish naval base by the Kurdish-separatist group the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Israeli assault on the Turkish flag flotilla ship. The two events fell within a couple of hours of each other. (Similarities between PKK, Israel attacks raise suspicions Today's Zaman 06/02/2010) I can't really judge how credible that is. I'm unfamiliar with Israel's history with the PKK. Given Israel's good relations with Turkey the last 20 years, it sounds unlikely on the face of it.

The United States agreed to UN Security Council language in their resolution about the flotilla incident that was harsher than most language criticizing Israel that the US has supported in the UN in recent memory. But the Obama administration's initial reaction indicates that they prefer to just sweep the incident out of sight as quickly as possible. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton elaborated on the US position:

We support, in the strongest terms, the Security Council's call for a prompt, impartial, credible, and transparent investigation.

We support an Israeli investigation that meets those criteria. We are open to different ways of assuring a credible investigation, including international participation. The situation, from our perspective, is very difficult and requires careful, thoughtful responses from all concerned. [my emphasis]
It's hard to imagine that any official investigation that the Benjamin Netanyahu/Avigdor Lieberman government would support would come to any conclusion other than one that completely exonerates the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from any meaningful wrongdoing.

Barak Ravid reports in UN Human Rights Council to probe Gaza flotilla raid Haaretz 02.06.2010:

The United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva decided Wednesday to dispatch an international committee to Israel to investigate the circumstances surrounding the Israel Navy's deadly raid on a Gaza-bound humanitarian aid flotilla earlier this week.

The resolution was passed by a majority vote of 32-3 with nine absentions [sic]. The United States voted against, along with Norway and Italy, while other European Union states abstained, as did Japan.

The draft resolution, sponsored by Arab states, harshly condemns Israel and says Israel violated international law when it took over the ships in the middle of the ocean. The resolution also calls on Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza and to supply immediate humanitarian aid to Gaza, in the forms of food, gas, and medications. ...

EU countries said they had tried to insert language would would have allowed them to vote yes, but the negotiations did not bear fruit.

The Netherlands said the rights council should not go beyond the decision of the UN Security Council from earlier in the week, which condemned the "acts" that lead to the deaths in the raid and called for a "credible and transparent" investigation, without imposing the nature of the inquiry. [my emphasis]
The official position of Netanyahu government on the flotilla raid is almost a caricature of heavy-handed propaganda, absurdly portraying the highly-trained, heavily-armed Israeli commandos who staged the night raid on the ships in international waters as acting defensively in the face of a deadly menace (Barak: In the Middle East, there is no mercy for the weak Haaretz 02.06.2010):

Defense Minister Ehud Barak visited the Shayetet 13 base in Atlit on Wednesday and praised the commandos who participated in the deadly raid on the Gaza-bound aid flotilla on Monday for carrying out their mission, Army Radio reported.

"You carried out the mission and prevented the flotilla from reaching Gaza," Barak said. "We need to always remember that we aren't North America or Western Europe, we live in the Middle East, in a place where there is no mercy for the weak and there aren't second chances for those who don't defend themselves. You were fighting for your lives – I saw it, and I heard it from your commanders."
Yehezkel Dror argues that the Israeli national-security policymaking process itself functions in a way that tends to produce self-destructive decisions, in Our primitive policy-making Haaretz 02.06.2010.

David Rothkopf makes a related point in The Existential threat in the mirror: Regarding the Gaza flotilla debacle, the facts don't matter Foreign Policy 06/01/2010. Rothkopf defends the Gaza blockade itself and specifically the flotilla raid of early Monday. But, he argues, "Isolating Gaza may provide some security benefits to Israel but in the end, as this incident demonstrates, it has created even greater risks." And he concludes:

From the unnecessary and destructive settlements policy to its blundering into severely degraded relations with the United States and the world, Netanyahu is the face of a country that increasingly unable to show its face anywhere internationally without provoking contempt. Admittedly, he is only partially an author of the problems he faces. Circumstances and dedicated opponents who are seen by most of the world to be advancing legitimate human rights concerns are even more important co-authors. But absent one of the great about-faces in the history of recent global affairs, it is reasonable to ask whether it is only through the departure of the current prime minister that the Israelis will be able to regroup and actually positively influence their own destiny.

For Netanyahu and for Israel, this weekend's tragedy is therefore a turning point. It doesn't matter whether it is being misunderstood. It doesn't matter whether it was a set up. It doesn't matter what the facts are. Israel, born at a disadvantage and vigorously playing defense ever since, is now on its heels. The next few years will see it lose ground demographically, diplomatically and literally. Whether after all that what is left actually is secure and sustainable will depend on decisions about how it wishes to present itself during the months ahead -- decisions that must necessarily involve reversals of Netanyahu policies regarding settlements, Gaza and confusing self-destruction for self-defense. [my emphasis]
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posted at 10:28:00 AM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink




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