Friday, January 07, 2011

Leading columnist/historian of California notices that Jerry Brown was ahead of his time

Gosh, who would have thought that? I mean, aside from anyone who bothered to take a look at what Jerry Brown accomplished and the ideas he advocated during his first Governorship and since.

But I'm not putting down this column, which is by Peter Schrag, Jerry Brown seems better suited to run today's California than in the '80s Sacramento Bee 01/07/2010. He "gets" Jerry's perspective better than 99% of those who write about him. He even managed to notice the influence on Jerry's thinking of the Christian philosopher Ivan Illich (which long-time readers of this blog have heard of more than once):

Brown, who like many of his contemporaries once had at least one hesitant foot in the counterculture of the 1960s, was deeply influenced by the anti-institutional ideas of his friend Ivan Illich. Illich, ordained as a priest, later an influential scholar, challenged all conventional ideas of progress – in institutionalized schooling, in modern health care, in technology – as forces that alienated the individual from his own ability to live a confident, self-reliant life.

In his moving tribute after Illich's death in 2002, Brown talked about how Illich took him back to the "Ignatian indifference to secular values of long life, fame and riches," he had learned as a Jesuit seminarian.

Both in his life and his work, Brown said, Illich "bore witness to the destructive power of modern institutions that 'create needs faster than they can create satisfaction, and in the process of trying to meet the needs they generate, they consume the earth.' "

Brown has always seemed torn between the ambitions of practical politics and his didactic, moralistic impulses. He left the seminary, but the seminary never quite left him.
This is what I always tell people who are puzzled by Brown's perspective. He's a Jesuit who went into politics.


On Brown's being ahead of his time, Shrag writes:

At times during those years [his first Governorship], his talk about an era of limits and the need to lower expectations seemed just a little – well, preachy. Similarly "small is beautiful," the British economist E.F. Schumacher's metaphor for the design of human-scale appropriate technologies that Brown embraced, often seemed almost un-American at a time when "bigger is better" was the rallying cry of national progress.

But limits – whether economic, environmental, political or military – hardly seem so strange now, even if the state, and other states and the nation as a whole, didn't face the monster budgetary crises they now struggle with.
And he recalls that Jerry understood that California needed to be on the leading edge of technological development and environmental business; this orientation wound up generating Jerry's most famous nickname:

Something similar is true about what you could call Brown's futurism. Thirty years ago Brown's fascination with the advanced and at times esoteric ideas of people like the great anthropologist and cybernetician Gregory Bateson, who he would appoint to the University of California regents, seemed too far out for the earthy practicalities of everyday government and public administration. Brown even flirted with the idea of a California space program. Chicago columnist Mike Royko's famously called him Governor Moonbeam.

During his last tenure as governor, Brown created a California Office of Appropriate Technology (which was promptly shut down by George Deukmejian when he succeeded Brown in Sacramento), and pushed hard for many of the model environmental and energy efficiency programs and policies for which the state has since become globally famous.
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Obsessed with race

Ron Brownstein, whose wife worked for John McCain, has a long article called White Flight National Journal 01/07/2011 on what he calls the "daunting and even historic" level of "white voters’ rejection of Democrats in November’s elections".

We saw in the 2008 Presidential race that our star pundits were obsessed with the race factor in the election. But since most of them live in the strange world in which Beltway Village wisdom defines reality, and since most of them seem to be completely unable to read and interpret polling results on any sound basis, much of that chatter was just bad, dumb and misleading. Thye one that sticks in my mind as the silliest I heard was Jon Meacham earnestly saying that Republicans were perplexed on how to approach a campaign against Obama, since they didn't know how to campaign against an African-American. This was in 2008, when the Republicans had already spent over four decades actively campaigning against African-Americans!

Digby analyzes Brownstein's article in Rebuilding The Coalition Hullabaloo 01/07/2011, citing this post by Duncan "Atrios" Black, Old White People Eschaton 01/07/2011, in which he says:

For some reason I seem to be one of the few people who noticed that Republicans ran on the truthy claim that Obama & Dems had cut Medicare. Combine that with the looming catfood commission making it impossible for Dems to style themselves credibly as defenders of Social Security and you have a bit of the reason they voted for Republicans. I'm not discounting the impact of the various race-infused freak show stuff that were tossed around, but if you want old white people to vote for you maybe you should give them a reason.
Before I wade into Brownstein analysis, I'll refer back to the topic I covered last year in The Republican Southern Strategy 04/22/2010.


There I discussed the findings of Nicholas Valentino and David Sears in their study of white racism in Southern voting patterns, "Old Times There Are Not Forgotten: Race and Partisan Realignment in the Contemporary South" American Journal of Political Science 49:3 (July 2005). This was a careful study which distinguished between "Jim Crow racism", which would be open support for segregationist laws, and "symbolic racism". They define the latter in a comment about the evolution of the academic discussion of the concept (I'm omitting the cited references in this quote):

In recent years ... it has consistently been conceptualized and measured in terms of four themes: the denial of discrimination [against blacks], criticism of blacks' work ethic, and resentment of blacks' demands and [resentment of blacks' supposed more favorable] treatment by the broader society, which together form a logically, psychologically, and statistically coherent belief system. Its origins were said to be obscure, but now have been shown to lie, at least partially, in the theorized mixture of antiblack affect and individualism. Its distinctiveness from Jim Crow racism was questioned, but whites' support for the latter has been sharply diminished while support for symbolic racism remains quite widespread, and the political effects of symbolic racism dwarf those of Jim Crow racism.
Valentino Sears show that "racial conservatism", aka, white racism, was a decisive factor in shifting white votes from the Democrats to the Republicans in elections as a result of the Republicans' anti-black Southern Strategy. That partisan shift in voting patterns was the focus of their study. It found that white racism was significant in Southern shifts of Party in a way that was not the case in other parts of the country. It did not try to measure race as an overall factor in voting.

I'm citing that because it's an excellent example of a reality-based, systematic study on the issue which makes clear that it is possible to isolate the effects of white racism/racial conservatism on voting patterns and also that it is a difficult task to do it right.

Which brings us to Brownstein's article. It's easy to state a case like this from his second paragraph:

Fully 60 percent of whites nationwide backed Republican candidates for the House of Representatives; only 37 percent supported Democrats, according to the National Election Poll exit poll conducted by Edison Research. Not even in Republicans’ 1994 congressional landslide did they win that high a percentage of the white vote.
It's much harder to say what that means in terms of voter motivations. And it's even more difficult to say what meaningful strategies to change those patterns might be. Of course, the Democrats don't have a decade to analyze such studies before they draw some conclusions for political strategy. But warning bells go off for me when a pundit like Brownstein in good graces with the Beltway Village bases a voting analysis on raw breakdowns of racial voting patterns. With an opening like that, Brownstein defines the problem as one of race.

For Democrats the real question is, what are the issues that move their base and the reachable swing voters in 2012 and beyond?

Because, as Digby indicates in her post, the more likely conclusion that our more timid Democratic leaders are likely to draw from an analysis like Brownstein's is that they should work harder to pander to conservative white people. But last year's election results with Harry Reid in Nevada and Jerry Brown in California suggest that a straightforward defense of minority rights on the current racial-hot-button issue of immigration can deliver a big win. The fact that X percent of whites voted such-and-such a way doesn't in itself tell us anything about what issues are most important in moving persuadable swing voters. Nor does it get to the "enthusiasm gap" and base turnout.

This isn't encouraging, from Brownstein's article:

David Axelrod, Obama’s chief political strategist, said in an interview that "it would be a mistake to take exit polls from a midterm election and extrapolate too far" toward 2012. Conditions—and the composition of the electorate—will change a great deal by then, he said. But he acknowledged that Obama must "reset" the public perception about his view of government’s role. Axelrod, who plans to return to Chicago next month to help direct the president’s reelection campaign, also made it clear that he sees as a "particularly instructive" model for 2012 the case of Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado, who won his contest last fall by mobilizing enough minorities, young people, and socially liberal, well-educated white women to overcome a sharp turn toward the GOP among most of the other white voters in his state. [my emphasis]
It's depressing that the point man on Obama's 2012 campaign is saying that Obama needs to reset the public's perception of about Obama's "view of government's role". Not that Obama needs to make the case for the Democratic view of government's role", but that Obama should package himself to agree more with the Republicans' view of the government's role. At least that what it sounds like to me.

None of this Jerry Brown talk about wagon trains and Josiah Royce's philosophy of community solidarity. No George Lakoff strategy about changing the framing. No paradigm resets or "transformative" politics for Axelrod and Obama.

But if that's the conclusion you're operating on anyway, as Obama and his team apparently are, it doesn't matter what data you get or how it's packaged, whether it's Brownstein's way or some other. We're let with the same dead-end strategy for the Democrats, which is to act more like Republicans.

Without sorting through the raw results of the Edison Research polling data on which Brownstein relies, I'll just make these observations:

  • It's worse than sloppy not to make it clear whether the Edison Research data on political attitudes of whites and blacks was a survey of actual voters; the way he describes it, that's the only reasonable conclusion, but it isn't entirely clear. And it makes a big difference how you read the results whether we're talking about people who voted in 2010 versus the general public.
  • Brownstein offers no comparison of comparative turnout to 2008 until many paragraphs into the article. The off-year electorate is normally older, whiter, more affluent and more conservative. When he gets around to mentioning it, he says the Edison results showed that "among minorities and young people", "both groups fell off even more than usual in 2010, producing an older and whiter electorate that compounded the GOP’s advantage." This actually suggests a different framing of the results, which is to ask why more than the average amount of the Democratic base stayed home, thus making it proportionately an even "older and whiter electorate" than in most mid-term elections.
  • Citing national trends of Latino voters doesn't mean much unless the Florida votes in particular are analyzed separately; the Cuban-American voting trend there has a very different political history than Latino voting in Arizona, California or Nevada. Nevada Latinos voted very heavily for Reid, as California Latinos did for Brown.
  • Saying that Republicans had their "best congressional result among white voters in the history of modern polling" (he means 30 years or so) is meaningless unless it's put in terms of the changing percentage of whites to all voters and unless the South is analyzed separately. He does some of that regional analysis late in the article, but doesn't seem to recognize that it mitigates some of his generalizations about race.
  • The approval/disapproval figures on Obama's Presidency seem skewed toward the disapproval side compared to other recent polling.
  • The analysis of people's view of the health care law doesn't deal with what aspects of the law people approved or disapproved; it also implicitly assumes that the split described is primarily based or race and not only some other factor like income, party affiliation and amount of time spent watching FOX News, all of which are very relevant factors.
  • Brownstein leaves the most interesting single poll finding he cites with no real analysis: "Minorities were almost exactly twice as likely as whites to say that life would be better for the next generation than for their own; whites were considerably more likely to say that it would be more difficult." Especially if the Edison results were of 2010 voters only, this suggests a very different perception among the older and more affluent that is related to wealth and class.
Finally, I would note in something that doesn't apply just to Brownstein's article, I wonder how good a representation of "working class" or "blue collar" votes it is to use "non-college-educated" as a stand-in.

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Thursday, January 06, 2011

Joe Conason is ready to see the Democrats make a frontal assault on the crazy

Joe Conason has been on holiday break from his usual venues in the New York Observer and Salon. He's back, with a piece in the former called The GOP Is Holding the Economy Hostage, and It's Time to Call Their Bluff 01/06/2011. As the title indicates, he's ready to see the Democrats rumble with the Republicans:

In their ideological zeal, the new Republicans on Capitol Hill seem eager to gamble everything — the financial reputation of the United States, the international status of the dollar, even the chance of a worldwide depression — on a showdown over the national debt ceiling. What has been mostly a routine if unpleasant debate in years past, with each party blaming the other for the nation's rising indebtedness, is rapidly becoming a mortal threat to economic recovery. ...

No doubt the Obama White House, which too often prefers "bipartisanship" to principled confrontation, will be tempted to make such a deal. The problem is that cutting the budget so drastically will undo the stimulative effects of the December tax-and-spending agreement — and plunge the economy back into recession. The President loses either way.

Perhaps the time has come for the Democrats to adopt a different strategy. Let the Republicans govern, or misgovern. Don't rescue them from their own recklessness. Don't vote to raise the debt ceiling unless and until the Republican leadership supports the bill — and if they refuse, let them take the responsibility for the consequences. Let's see how long they can listen to the screaming of their major contributors on Wall Street as the world economy shudders. Make the hostage takers surrender this time. [my emphasis]
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Josiah Royce on having a larger purpose

From Josiah Royce, The Philosophy of Loyalty (1908), the book to which Jerry Brown referred in his inaugural address on Monday on being sworn in as California's Governor. Loyalty, in the sense Royce used it, meant "solidarity", but not just narrow-group solidarity; he meant commitment to something that would fulfill the individual by contributing to something of benefit to humanity:

Only a cause, then an absorbing and fascinating social cause, which by his own will and consent comes to take possession of his life, as the spirits that a magician summons might by the magician's own will and consent take control of the fortunes of the one who has called for their aid, - only a cause, dignified by the social unity that it gives to many human lives, but rendered also vital for the loyal man by the personal affection which it awakens in his heart, only such a cause can unify his outer and inner world. When such unity comes, it takes in him the form of an active loyalty. Whatever cause thus appeals to a man meets therefore one of his deepest personal needs, and in fact the very deepest of his moral needs; namely, the need of a life task that is at once voluntary and to his mind worthy.
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Jerry Brown and the press

Big subject. But obviously an important one.

Calbuzz has a weirdly mixed record this week reporting on California's new Governor. Their piece Inaugural: Brown Urges Loyalty to the Community 01/04/2011 is the best report I've seen on his inaugural speech, starting off with:

Jerry Brown’s inaugural address was a political homily that invoked a pioneer philosopher and his own ancestors’ journey westward to argue that California’s only way forward from chronic gridlock and fiscal morass is "loyalty to the community."
Those were the two most important parts of the speech in terms of articulating Jerry's larger vision. And this article put it in the lede where it belonged. The rest of the article is also informative and substantive.

But they've also laid two big eggs with their articles this week. The worse was the pre-inaugural Five Key Questions About Krusty’s Inaugural 01/03/2011, which was just downright silly. Calbuzz Rescues Inaugural from Crashing Boredom was nearly as bad; it's a report on an evening inaugural party at a restaurant featuring various dignitaries including the new Governor that reads like Maureen Dowd on downers:

Still, the 90 or so revelers who were actually conscious for the big party, held at fabulous Lucca restaurant (plenty of valet parking), did their best to overcome their disappointment at his absence [an imaginary character!, dining on smoked chicken risotto, chicken saltimbocca, pan roasted salmon and grilled bistro steak, consuming mass quantities of Ray Station Merlot, Kendall Jackson Chardonnay and Camelot Cabernet, and enjoying an evening utterly bereft of the tedious, mind-numbing speechifying that characterizes most such events in Sacramento.

Plus, they got a really cool credential — the type which the skinflint Brown operation provided to no one covering his big day.
Plus there are pictures of various people, all without captions. (?!)

Calbuzz is the product of a duo, Jerry Roberts and Phil Trounstine. I'm guessing that one of the wrote the good article and the other produced the two stinkers. They really should start signing their articles. It might discourage the Maureen Dowd parodies - which seemed to have been intended as web-savvy cynicism. Good grief!

One of the more memorable (both catchy and substantial) quotes from Jerry's inaugural was, "Without the trust of the people, politics degenerates into mere spectacle; and democracy declines, leaving demagoguery and cynicism to fill the void." The lines that came just before that are, "the public holds the state government in such low esteem. And that’s a profound problem, not just for those of us who are elected, but for our whole system of self-government."

Our press today seems almost constitutionally incapable of processing something like that as anything but rhetorical fluff. I doubt most of them realized that the "spectacle" line was also a slap at the press, whose now-chronic dysfunctionality contributes in a major way to that result.

Evan Halper of the Los Angeles Times gave a great illustration of that in an article to which Michael Mishak and Shane Goldmacher also had their names attached, Taking state's reins for 3rd time 01/03/2011. Their report on the inauguration focuses on ... the spectacle. Because that's what our press cares about.

Their disappointment and irritation about Jerry's union-sponsored, bare-bones inaugural party in the afternoon is obvious. Near the end, they make a telling observation; telling about themselves, especially:

He doesn't have a press secretary or a communications chief.

Insiders say he is planning to replace the 14 people who have been fielding the hundreds of media requests from television, radio, print and online journalists reporting on the government of the largest state in the country, the eighth largest economy in the world, with as few as three staffers and an assistant.
Oh.My.God. Reporters may have to write their own stories! They may actually have to sit down and their computers and do some research rather than taking pre-packaged story from a PR staff! Oh, the horror, the horror!

Brown doesn't trust the press much. And for good reason.

We'll soon see how Jerry's makes deals. But I don't think he plans to worship at the altar of Bipartisanship, which one of the main things the press latched onto from his inaugural.

Also from the LA Times, an editorial, A Brown, again 01/04/2011, focused on vague speculation about bipartisanship, a word which has pretty much evolved into being devoid of actual content: "Those reforms will take time to have an effect, but they should bend the state toward bipartisanship ..." Because we all know that Bipartisanship is what every voter wants more than anything. (NOT!)

But George Skelton cranked out From the start, Jerry Brown appears to have a big helping of realism 01/04/2011 a decent analysis of the inaugural speech: "On Monday, Brown hit the right tone with the right words — no labored attempt at inspiration, no bull. ... There'll be ample time in the future to criticize details and deeds. But today, after a brief glimpse at Gov. Jerry Brown II, there's hope."

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Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Obama, the Radical Republicans and the new investigation era of pseudo-scandals

Robert Perry has a good opening look at the Republicans' new round of Congressional investigation sleaze-slinging in Republicans Aim Info-War at Obama Consortium News 01/04/2011:

Finally, Congress appears ready to hold some high-profile hearings – except they won’t be about the most important scandals of the past decade, like how the United States was misled into the Iraq invasion, how the Afghan War was bungled, how torture became a U.S. practice, or how bank deregulation and Wall Street greed nearly destroyed the economy. ...

If the experience of the Clinton years continues to be predictive, the mainstream news media will eagerly clamber onto the right-wing bandwagon in pursuit of scandal stories.

This latest turn of the page on the GOP’s old get-Clinton playbook was, of course, not unexpected. What remains extraordinary is how clueless the Democrats continue to be about the importance of official investigations in educating – or mis-educating – the American people. [my emphasis]
One correction I would make to Perry's article. It's true that in the early 1990s, "The growing right-wing news media began hammering away at Bill and Hillary Clinton’s personal finances, as well as their troubled marriage." And the Whitewater scandal originated with a handful of hardcore sleazebag segregationists in Arkansas.


But it wasn't the rightwing media that made them scandals. It was the New York Times and the Washington Post and other mainstream press outlets. That's a critically important turning-point in the history of the American press. And we shouldn't let them off the hook by pretending it was only the "right-wing new media".

The very astute press critic Jay Rosen wrote in From Judith Miller to Julian Assange Press Think 12/09/2010, "To understand Julian Assange and the weird reactions to him in the American press we need to tell a story that starts with Judy Miller [and her phony WMD stories in the New York Times in 2002] and ends with Wikileaks."

He's referring more specifically to the attitude of the press on national security. And there is a case to be made that the disgraceful Judith Miller/Michael Gordon stories on WMDs in Iraq represented a qualitatively new stage of decay for the American press.

But I don't think it's more decisive than the leap off the cliff that occurred when the New York Times ran their first Whitewater story. As I wrote here several years ago, "In the history of the disaster we know as the Iraq War, the date March 8, 1992, deserve a special place. That was the date Jeff Gerth's first story on "Whitewater" appeared on the front page of the New York Times."

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Tuesday, January 04, 2011

Hans Küng (and others) on religion and world peace

This video is a panel discussion on religion and world peace which includes the great ecumenical theologian Hans Küng, who serves as President of the Global Ethic Foundation. The video is dated 12/09/2010.



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Jerry Brown and Josiah Royce


Josiah Royce (1855-1916)

I was intrigued by the Josiah Royce quotation Jerry Brown used in his inaugural address yesterday. Here is the excerpt from Jerry's prepared text:

One of our native sons, Josiah Royce, became for a time one of the most famous of American philosophers. He was born in 1855, in a mining camp that later became the town of Grass Valley. I mention him because his "Philosophy of Loyalty" is exactly what is called for. Loyalty to the community, to what is larger than our individual needs.

We can overcome the sharp divisions that leave our politics in perpetual gridlock, but only if we reach into our hearts and find that loyalty, that devotion to California above and beyond our narrow perspectives.

I also mention Josiah Royce because long ago my father spoke to me about his philosophy of loyalty. I didn't really grasp its importance, but as I look back now, I understand how this loyalty to California was my father’s philosophy as well. It drove him to build our freeways, our universities, our public schools and our state water plan.
Kelly Parker authored the 2004 article on Josiah Royce in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. She writes:

Josiah Royce (1855-1916) was the leading American proponent of absolute idealism, the metaphysical view (also maintained by G. W. F. Hegel and F. H. Bradley) that all aspects of reality, including those we experience as disconnected or contradictory, are ultimately unified in the thought of a single all-encompassing consciousness.
But he didn't stick with that position forever:

Royce's friendly but longstanding dispute with William James, known as "The Battle of the Absolute," deeply influenced both philosophers' thought. In his later works, Royce reconceived his metaphysics as an "absolute pragmatism" grounded in semiotics. This view dispenses with the Absolute Mind of previous idealism and instead characterizes reality as a universe of ideas or signs which occur in a process of being interpreted by an infinite community of minds. These minds, and the community they constitute, may themselves be understood as signs. Royce's ethics, philosophy of community, philosophy of religion, and logic reflect this metaphysical position. [my emphasis]
She also discusses in more detail Royce's book The Philosophy of Loyalty (1908), to which Jerry specifically referred. I can easily imagine this view, as explained by Parker, would be appealing to Jerry:

Royce's ethics is rooted in his analysis of the conditions necessary for an individual life to be meaningful. It is not enough that one's actions merely conform to the strictures of conventional morality — a trained animal might well fulfill such minimal conditions of morality. To lead a morally significant life, one's actions must express a self-consciously asserted will. They must contribute toward realizing a plan of life, a plan that is itself unified by some freely chosen aim. Such an aim and its corresponding plan of life could not easily be created by an individual out of the chaos of conflicting personal desires and impulses that we all encounter. Rather, such aims and plans are found already largely formed in social experience: we come to consciousness in a world that proffers countless well-defined causes and programs for their accomplishment. These programs extend through time and require the contributions of many individuals for their advancement. When one judges a cause to be worthwhile and freely embraces such a program, several momentous things happen. The individual's will is focused and defined in terms of the shared cause. The individual becomes allied with a community of others who are also committed to the same cause. Finally, a morally significant commitment to the cause and to the community develops. This commitment is what Royce calls "loyalty."
And, yes, Jerry does understand stuff like this.

What Royce called "loyalty" is more like what we would call "solidarity".

And this would also appeal to Jerry, as well:

While every community hopes for the accomplishment of its central cause, and sees that cause's fulfillment as its highest achievement, Royce places particularly high emphasis on the phenomenon of loyalty to a lost cause. A lost cause is not in Royce's view a hopeless cause, but rather one that cannot be fulfilled within the actual lifetime of the community or any of its members. Many lost causes are rightly lost, of course: Royce would have recognized the Confederate States' defense of slavery during the U.S. Civil War as such a case. Besides such misguided causes, though, there are a number of legitimate causes that are, by this definition, "lost" simply in virtue of their scope and magnitude. Such causes are not hopeless, however. It is precisely these causes that establish ideals capable of evoking our highest hope and moral commitment. [my emphasis]
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Monday, January 03, 2011

Jerry Brown's inauguration address 01/03/2011

These two videos contain Jerry Brown's inaugural address from Monday. The prepared text is here, but he did some ad libbing, too.

Part 1:



Part 2:



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Jerry Brown's inauguration

"Without the trust of the people, politics degenerates into mere spectacle; and democracy declines, leaving demagoguery and cynicism to fill the void." - California Gov. Jerry Brown, in his inaugural address 01/03/2011.

Brown tried to frame his Governorship's mission in community terms, referring to his German great-grandfather's journey to the American West on a wagon train and invoking philosopher Josiah Royce on a "Loyalty to the community, to what is larger than our individual needs." The wagon train is a classic traditional American sentimental image of community effort.

I'll post video in the next post. The prepared text is here, but he did some ad libbing, too.

The Josiah Royce quotation intrigued me. You can read Kelly Parker's 2004 article on Josiah Royce in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. I'll post more about that later.

David Siders, Jerry Brown becomes 39th governor, promises 'a tough budget for tough times' 01/03/2011. The Sacbee's Excerpts from Brown's inaugural address actually managed to include the Josiah Royce reference, which may be the most significant part of the speech.

Anthony York's report in the Los Angeles Times is better: Brown sworn in as California's 39th governor 01/04/2011.


Daniel B. Wood of the Christian Science Monitor has a pre-inauguration analysis in Jerry Brown as California governor, Act 2: Can he save the state? 01/03/2010.

Since the state's reporters are far too willing to grant anonymity for things that don't require it for any reason other than the convenience of politicians and officials - and maybe to enhance the dramatic mystique of the reporters - it's hard to know how far a report like this one reflects leaks from Brown's team: Kevin Yamamura, Brown to propose broad list of budget cuts Sacramento Bee 01/03/2011. He reports:

Brown, to be sworn in this morning, wants to slash virtually every state-funded program to help balance California's massive deficit, in many cases resurrecting cuts sought by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger but rejected by lawmakers. Brown would restrict Medi-Cal access, divert low-level offenders to county jails and cut deeply into California State University and the University of California.

The Democrat is counting on lawmakers to approve the cuts to encourage voters to also provide revenue. A June ballot measure would extend higher tax rates on income, vehicles and sales set to expire this year, as well as eliminate a new corporate tax benefit. The money from the vehicle and sales tax extensions would be sent to local governments, which would take on some functions the state performs now.

Brown also wants to take money from voter-approved accounts that fund early childhood development and mental health care, a plan similar to one rejected by voters in 2009.

Brown's widescale cuts seem designed to hit services that permeate every part of Californians' lives. The reductions to state parks and libraries, for instance, are minuscule against the backdrop of a deficit greater than $25 billion over the next 18 months. But park and library closures would surely draw the attention of middle-class families.

So would cuts to the state's two university systems, which Brown will pursue one year after Schwarzenegger singled out the state's higher-education system for protection.
Here's columnist Dan Walters, also a pre-inauguration piece, Brown 2.0 will face old issues Sacramento Bee 01/03/2011. Walters sometimes has some decent observations. But he still seems to blame Jerry Brown's first governorship for everything from the Republican-led "tax revolt" of 1978 and following years to potholes in 2011. This, for instance, is silly: "Brown 1.0 virtually halted the state's once-expansive highway construction plan three decades ago, and with the state's population now 50 percent bigger, it has the nation's worst traffic congestion and second-worst pavement conditions."

Yes, Jerry did restrict highway funds during his earlier governorship, much to the annoyance of developers and local government officials. What Walters surely knows but conveniently neglects to say is that this was part of an approach to boost public transportation. Jerry was the last Governor of California to give public transportation the emphasis it still deserves. Without what he did then, traffic congestion would be much worse.

This sort of whiny old-boy cynicism is one of the emerging scripts for "Jerry Brown 2.0".

I know it's not news that our press is lazy. But couldn't some of them be a little more imaginative than running vague comparisons of questionable meaning between the 1970s and today? The San Francisco Chronicle does the same thing: Then and now: A look at Jerry Brown and California 01/03/2011. hey, did you know that Jerry was single 40 years ago and he's married now? Wow-wee!!

But the Los Angeles Times in their pre-inauguration story of Jerry managed to focus on the present and the immediate future! Anthony York writes in Brown's success could depend on his first 100 days 01/03/2011:

Brown plans to pass a budget through the Legislature within two months, instead of the usual seven or eight. Those involved in budget discussions with him say he then plans to ask voters to extend temporary increases to the state sales, income and vehicle taxes that lawmakers and the governor enacted in 2009. Voters have already rejected an extension of those taxes as part of a 2009 special election, and Republican leaders have indicated there is no GOP support for putting the issue back before voters.

Brown's main charge will be to keep voters on his side, even as he introduces a series of spending cuts and potential tax increases that are bound to be unpopular.
He does reference Jerry's earlier period. And he uses a meaningful reference: "During his first stint as governor, he said California was entering an 'era of limits.' Now, Brown is promising deep spending cuts, including some in his own office."

What he doesn't say is that Jerry was mightily ridiculed as a DFH for talking about the "age of limits", even though the Arab oil boycott had provided the most dramatic kind of demonstration of the limits of a fossil fuel economy, as did the oil shortage during his second term in the wake of the Iranian Revolution of 1979. He used the slogan both to emphasize environmental priorities and to try to give a progressive spin to the shortage of governmental resources that was a reality in the serious recession of 1973-75.

This whole notion of the "100 days" of a new administration being critical has become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, applying a standard relating to the flood of activity of the Franklin Roosevelt Administration in early 1933. Like many favorite notions in political commentary, it's pretty much like a baseball statistic: it holds good until someone does something different.

The Calbuzz pre-inaugural piece is uncharacteristically bad, downright silly, including the title: Five Key Questions About Krusty’s Inaugural 01/03/2011.

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posted at 11:44:00 PM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Egyptian officialdom and Coptic Christians: a mixed record

The anti-Muslim hate-mongering that rightwingers in America and Europe are currently promoting is largely fact-free. But that shouldn't stop the rest of us from looking realistically at the variety of relationships between Christians and Muslims in Muslim-majority countries.

In the face of a bomb attack on a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria on January 1, the Egyptian government has prominently defended the Christian and condemned the attack, as Juan Cole explains in Mubarak: We will Cut off the Head of the Snake; Al-Azhar: This was an Attack on all Egyptian Informed Comment 01/02/2010:

The foremost seat of Islamic learning in Egypt, Al-Azhar Seminary in Cairo, issued a plea for Egyptians to maintain their national unity the face of this bombing. In a statement, al-Azhar urged all Egyptians to rise above their anguish and perceive that the criminal hand that attacked the church in Alexandria is not an Egyptian hand. It added that "The brotherhood that has united them across centuries cannot be affected by a cowardly, criminal act perpetrated by enemies of the nation and of the [Muslim] community."

The invocation of both watan (the secular nation-state) and umma (the Muslim community or nation) refers to the two major political identities of Egypt. It is the secular nation-state or watan to which the Coptic Christians belong, and which was sinned against by the bombing of the church, but the al-Azhar is going further, and saying that the Muslim community was also harmed by this attack.
His Excellency the Rector of al-Azhar, Dr. Ahmad al-Tayyib, expressed his utmost regret and pain at the criminal incident and sent his condolences to the families of the victims. Al-Tayyib said in his official statement that the criminal action is prohibited in Islamic law, since Islam obliges Muslims to protect churches the same way they protect mosques. He said, "The targets of this attack are not the Christians alone, but rather all Egyptians." He said that the bombers were seeking to destabilize Egypt by dividing it.

The Rector of al-Azhar is among the most respected Sunni Muslim leaders in the world, and many Egyptian believers take his rulings or fatwas very seriously.
This is a 24-minute video on the attack and the aftermath from Al Jazeera English 01/02/2011. Note that the Al Jazerra interviewer makes it a point to report on instances of official discrimination against Christians by the Egyptian government. He also does something that may seem exotic to American TV news viewers: he actually corrects a mention of an event by one guest to make sure viewers understand that it's an unsubstantiaed rumor.



As this Al Jazeera report makes clear, Egypt is scarcely an ecumenical paradise for Christians. But it's important to note the real nature of incidents like this.

Al-Ahram, which Cole describes as a "semi-official Egyptian newspaper", has numerous articles and features on the attack at its English-language site:

Ekram Ibrahim, Citizen initiatives against anti-Coptic attacks 01/03/2011: "One of the main initiatives is a call for Muslims to attend the Orthodox Christmas Eve mass on January 6 as a sign of solidarity."

Ekram Ibrahim, More Egypt pro-Coptic protests today 01/03/2011: "Yesterday, thousands of outraged Copts conducted at least five protests throughout Cairo. Fifty seven were reported injured and Cairo traffic was jammed as a result of the protests."

Gamal Essam El-Din, Egypt MPs urge Coptic restraint after church attack 01/03/2011: "Fathi Sorour, speaker of the People's Assembly, said 'the attack against the Alexandria church of Al-Qiddisin is a cowardly act, and is by no means aimed to strike at Copts only, but all Egyptians, Copts and Muslims, in order to spark a civil war.'"

Ekram Ibrahim, Cairo boils as Copts protest 01/02/2011: "Friday night's explosion outside Saints Church in Alexandria during New Year's midnight mass killed 21 and left more than 96 injured and stirred Copts out of their docile 'pigeon attitude.'"

Hani Shukralla, J’accuse 01/01/2011. He argues that general social intolerance against Christians in Egypt has been increasing. This is an important point: "I accuse those state bodies who believe that by bolstering the Salafi trend they are undermining the Muslim Brotherhood, and who like to occasionally play to bigoted anti-Coptic sentiments, presumably as an excellent distraction from other more serious issues of government."

Abdel Moneim Said, Our national unity 01/02/2011: "What appears obvious is that a malicious campaign is afoot to stir sectarian strife in the country using terrorism, hate-mongering and other expressions of fanaticism, and generally trying to reproduce conditions that prevail in certain other nearby countries."

Sadly, this diversity of response reflected in the above reports finds little echo in this Los Angeles Times story on the event: Amro Hassan and Borzou Daragahi, Egypt calls for calm as church bombing toll rises to 25 01/03/2011. The second-to-last paragraph mentions, for the readers who get that far into the story: "The bombing drew widespread condemnation across the Middle East, including from Islamist political groups such as Hamas in the Palestinian territories and Hezbollah in Lebanon." But then the story concludes with a clash-of-civilizations spin: "It was the latest in a series of violent attacks in the Muslim world targeting Christian communities, already shrinking because of emigration."

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posted at 12:27:00 PM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


George Packer speech from May 2010 on Obama and the Afghanistan War

The UCtelevision (UCTV, from the University of California) channel from You Tube. is a good resource. They present a number of videos of an hour or so length, such as this one, Obama Afghanistan and Vietnam with George Packer of the New Yorker:



This is a talk Packer gave at UC-Santa Barbara, and it's formal title is "An American Dilemma: Obama, Afghanistan and Vietnam". Oddly, it's undated, but it appears to be this event of 05/18/2010.

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posted at 3:00:00 AM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Sunday, January 02, 2011

Jerry Brown's initial approach to the California budget crisis

Jerry Brown will be sworn in as Governor of California on Monday, starting his third term as Governor after his two terms from 1973 to 1981.

David Siders reports on what appears to be a trial balloon initial framing of his budget proposals in Brown plans to take tax hike extension to voters in Brown plans to take tax hike extension to voters in June June Sacramento Bee 12/30/2010:

Gov.-elect Jerry Brown will propose a ballot measure to extend temporary tax hikes set to expire next year, while pressuring fellow Democrats to consent to billions of dollars in spending cuts in virtually every area of state government, sources said.

The tax package, planned for the June ballot, would extend higher vehicle, sales and income tax rates. It likely won't include additional new taxes, such as an oil severance tax. ...

The budget deficit is estimated to be as much as $28 billion over 18 months.

Brown will propose a budget including roughly $10 billion in cuts, about $10 billion in revenue – mostly from the proposed tax extension – and about $8 billion in one-time fixes, a source said.
I say it appears to be a trial balloon, because the story is based on anonymous sources. This is a very sloppy journalistic habit; why should sources for such a story be anonymous?


California state politics has been seriously dysfunctional for many years thanks to the Republicans' success in passing "starve the beast" measures to make even the normal functioning of government a continuous difficult even in the best of economic times. Part of that dysfunction has been the deterioration in press coverage, which creates a mutually re-enforcing cycle of a non-virtuous sort.

So, in this story, Siders begins with a Republican-friendly framing - Jerry Brown wants to raise taxes! - rather than the reality that will most impact people's lives, which is that important state services faces huge and long-term reductions. As reporting on Jerry goes, it's not the worst, by any means. He doesn't use any dumb press scripts (e.g., Gov. Moonbeam) and he does sketch out the messy process we're likely to see: obstructionist Republicans, calculating Democrats, a lot of proposals and counter-proposals and speculation and rumors. The state budget process in California has been very complicated even before this year.

The press will focus mainly on what they are used to reporting and understand, which is the horse-race calculations. Any proposed tax initiatives to be voted on by the public will be horse races that will win or lose at the polls in June, so most journalists will likely follow Siders' example and focus on those.

Siders gets around to spelling out what seems to me (even without anonymous sources) to be Jerry's approach about halfway through his report:

Brown has said he wants to negotiate a budget agreement with the Legislature by March, far sooner than is typical. That would allow time for a special election in June. Brown promised in the gubernatorial campaign not to raise taxes without voter approval.

Brown will need a two-thirds majority of the Legislature to place the tax-extension matter on the ballot, requiring some Republican support.

Senate Republican leader Bob Dutton, R-Rancho Cucamonga, said he does not believe Brown will achieve that. [my emphasis]
Jerry committed himself to not raise taxes without voter approval. Given the semi-plebiscitory form of government we have in California with the initiative and referendum system here, that actually makes a lot of sense. Without walking through all the problems of that system, the current state of things is this. Ever since 1978, Republicans have pushed measures aimed at limiting taxes. At the same time, other initiatives have mandated certain kinds of spending. And once a law has been passed on a statewide vote, it can normally be changed only by another statewide vote or a court decision. The result is that the state has an extremely complex tangle of revenue restrictions, spending restrictions and spending mandates that actually remove much of the budget from the discretionary control of the state legislature.

There are some larger lessons in that about how a nominally democratic tool like initiative and referendum can actually wind up paralyzing the functioning of democratic government. For more on that aspect, see the article on Plebiscitory Democracy in the Routledge Dictionary of Politics, 3rd edition.

But Jerry's budget fight isn't aimed an drawing larger political science lessons. It's dealing with the practical consequences in 2011 and 2012 of the state's current financial situation. If he can get the legislature to meet the March date for a budget, he can get the tax measures on the ballot and use the campaign for them to go around the established media and reframe the issues at stake as ones of critical services as well as the fairness of tax burdens.

The Reps are already signalling they won't go along with it. And if they hold to party-line discipline, they can deny Brown and the Dems the 2/3 majority they would need to put the measures on the June ballot as referenda. Jerry could try putting the same measures on the ballot as initiatives through signature-gathering campaigns. But I expect him to insist on the legislature, including the Republicans, to live with the consequences of rejecting the tax option. That would mean putting through the cuts that would be required to balance the budget. The Reps will assume they can then blame Jerry and the Dems for the consequences. But Jerry Brown isn't Barack Obama. He'll make sure that the public hears clearly that its the Republican Wrecker Party who refused to allow the public to even consider revenue options for dealing with the crisis.

In that connection, it's notable that Siders' mystery sources are speculating about the June tax measures being temporary. That would allow them to be used in addressing the immediate crisis and also test the voting public's appetite for undoing the Republicans' starve-the-beast approach to state government.

Also important to watch will be how Brown handles Republican opponents of his tax measures in the legislature and during the ballot measure campaigns. I expect him to be aggressive in trying to mobilize pressure in their home districts to get them to cooperate.

Jerry's advice to "fasten your seat belt" may have been a broader warning than Siders seems to think it is.

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posted at 4:02:00 PM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Robert Reich talking about his book "Aftershock"

This 49-minute video is a speech by economist Robert Reich about his book Aftershock (2010).



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posted at 3:00:00 AM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Saturday, January 01, 2011

The Obama Administration: Strategic political problem? Or good enough at putting "points of the board"?

Frank Schaeffer is a recovering Christian Rightist and has some very insightful things to say about his former movement, of which his father was a major founder. And at one level it's refreshing that he isn't the kind of convert who goes from being a shrill rightwinger to being a dogmatic leftwinger.

Having said that, it's still annoying that in defending President Obama and the Democratic Party, he still likes to verbally punch the hippies, as he does in his year-end piece, Obama's Critics Owe Him a New Years (Fact-Based) Apology Huffington Post 12/31/2010. Why should Obama's critics like Paul Krugman apologize? "Why? Because 2011 will see the USA rebounding, the Democratic Party doing well in 2012, the country in boom times by 2013 and the President having a great second term." Okay, maybe he does have some of the convert's starry-eyed optimistic zeal! It's just focused on Obama and the Democratic Party rather than some actual lefty dogma.

Despite what Schaeffer says in his column, Paul Krugman and others like Robert Reich and Joseph Stiglitz have been pretty consistent over the last two years, in their cases specifically on the subject of the stimulus of early 2009 not being large enough to jump-start the economy. Their warnings against fetishizing the balanced budget are well taken. As are their related debunking of various conservative scare stories: the bond vigilantes are after us! We're becoming like Greece! The Federal Reserve is printing lots of money and is going to set off hyperinflation! If the economy booms and unemployment plunges in 2011, not only they but lots of other economists will be taking a new look to see what they missed. But such a turn of events would be near-miraculous.

And if Krugman and his Democratic sympathizers, including the DFHs of the blogosphere, are what Schaeffer means by "the Left", it's hard to imagine how he came up with this: "But the Left is also being shown up because it kept carping no matter what the President did." The latter specifically in relation to the Senate approval of New START, the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell, and the health-care compensation for Ground Zero workers. But did Krugman criticize any of those things? Did any of the front-page writers for Daily Kos? Anybody else who would be recognized by other liberals or progressives as liberal or progressive? Not that I saw.


Democratic progressives have generally been concerned about a number of serious and substantive policy issues: the failure to prosecute perpetrators of torture and war crimes from the previous administration; the inadequacy of the stimulus to push the economy into a healthy recovery which thereby risks the danger of a liquidity trap that could produce something like Japan's "lost decade" of the 1990s; the escalation of the Afghanistan War; government secrecy claims literally more extreme than those made by the Cheney-Bush administration; a health care reform bill structured in a way that makes it highly vulnerable to attack by Republicans and to nullification of many of its practical benefits by private insurers - yes, including the critical weakness of not having a public option; a financial reform bill that doesn't restrain the financial derivatives practices that crashed the financial system in 2008; the continuation of Bush's tax subsidies for billionaires coupled with a payroll tax reduction that sets up Social Security for phaseout advocates, which will likely include the President himself.

The Washington Post's E. J. Dionne did a milder version of the same in his Post column, Liberals should accept defeat and get back to their goals12/30/2010, and in his 12/31/2010 guest appearance on the PBS Newshour (transcript here):



This is Dionne's basic pitch from his column:


For the president's loyalists, of course, this indictment is profoundly unfair. He inherited a mess at home and abroad. The economic downturn began on Bush's watch, but its bitter fruits were harvested after Obama took office. By contrast, Franklin Roosevelt took power after Herbert Hoover had presided over three of the most miserable years in American economic history. Blame was firmly fixed on Hoover by the time FDR showed up with his jaunty smile and contagious optimism.

And, yes, there is the small issue of Obama's real achievements, the health-care law, above all. If insuring 32 million more Americans is not an enormous social reform, then nothing can be said to count as change. The now well-rehearsed list of additional accomplishments - from Wall Street and student-loan reform to the end of "don't ask, don't tell" to the simple fact that the economy's catastrophic slide was halted and reversed - would, in the abstract, do any administration proud.
As strange as it may strike Frank Schaeffer and E. J. Dionne, it is possible for Democratic base voters and activists to walk and talk at the same time. We can praise Harry Reid for getting New START and DADT repeal through the Senate, and still point out that the decision to continue the filibuster rule in the 2009-10 Senate was brutally damaging to official Democratic positions and to the Democrats' political standing. I attended the Netroots Nation convention in 2010 where Elizabeth Warren was a guest. And from what I could see, those DFH liberals there regarded her as a heroine. Those same liberals who also cheered for her appointment to head the Consumer Protection agency which she was instrumental in getting enacted can also look at the financial reform bill that contained it and see that it failed to enact adequate regulations to address the known and highly consequential risks associated with financial buccaneering with derivatives.

Unless we regard politics as little more than a sports event, in which putting "points on the board" for Our Side is the only thing that matters - and that is pretty much how our star pundits regard it! - then any adult of reasonable mental competence should be able to see things of which they approve as well as things they don't in this Administration.

It doesn't fit in the points-on-the-board framework that both Schaeffer and Dionne use in these examples. But Marshall Gans' op-ed, How Obama lost his voice, and how he can get it back Los Angeles Times 11/03/2010, which I've quoted here before, makes an important point. The times in which Obama became President called for transformational leadership. But what the Obama Administration has provided has been transactional leadership: "The nation was ready for transformation, but the president gave us transaction. And, as is the case with leadership failures, much of the public's anger, disappointment and frustration has been turned on a leader who failed to lead."

This is a valid point, though Obama's popularity ratings have held up well, and it was Congress that was the more direct target of discontent in 2010 for the obvious fact that members of Congress were up for election and Obama wasn't. But the Republican Party does take a longer view in their political strategy, looking toward transformational opportunities. They know that fighting for an issue that can define the Party strategically and losing can be a failure in "putting points on the board" but an important success in the longer run effort to frame the issues in the media and the public discussion.

If the Democratic President in his State of the Union address later this month endorses Social Security Phaseout, that is likely to be a transformational moment. But not in a good way for most people. And not in a good way for the Democrats in either the long term or the point-scoring game.

And regardless of what position it occupies at the moment on the left-to-right scale as determined by the Beltway Village, the Obama Administration's failure to properly investigate and prosecute known criminal actions by the Cheney-Bush Administration, especially the torture program in which both Bush and Cheney have publicly and explicitly acknowledged being involved in acts that a unquestionably criminal, is a fundamental failure in its duty to defend the Constitution and the laws of the country. The torture issue isn't going away. But Constitutional government was nullified in significant ways by the previous Administration. And the failure to prosecute all but guarantees that the next Republican Administration will consider itself even less bound by US or international law.

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posted at 4:09:00 PM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink




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