Saturday, May 07, 2011

American citizen Dangerous terrorist almost assassinated

Margaret Coker, et al, reported for Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal that the Obama Administration just tried but failed to assassinate US citizen Anwar Al-Awlaki: Strike Marked Yemeni Cleric 05/06/2011. Despite the Murdoch-y headline, Al-Awlaki is a US citizen. Here's how they report it, relying on an anonymous "Yememi account," whatever that may mean:

According to a Yemeni account of Thursday's strike, the U.S. launched two separate attacks aimed at Mr. Awlaki in the southern province of Shebwa, which is considered an AQAP [Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula] stronghold.

The missiles killed two suspected AQAP members but missed their intended target, Mr. Awlaki. Although the strike was conducted by the military, the operation—like the bin Laden raid—appears to be the result of close cooperation between the Department of Defense, the CIA and Yemeni officials.

Yemen officials said the U.S. fired twice at Mr. Awlaki in two attacks spread over about 45 minutes. In the first, the U.S. fired three rockets at a pickup truck in which Mr. Awlaki and a Saudi national and suspected al Qaeda member were traveling outside the village of Jahwa, located some 20 miles away from the Shebwa provincial capital, according to local residents and the Yemeni security official.

Two Yemeni brothers, who were known by local residents for giving shelter to al Qaeda militants, rushed to the scene of the attack. Mr. Awlaki switched vehicles with them, leaving the two Yemenis in the pickup. A single missile from the U.S. rocket then hit the pickup truck, killing the Yemenis inside.

Mr. Awlaki escaped in the other vehicle.
The writers draw this conclusion:

The strike sends a clear message that despite turmoil in the Middle East and the success of the bin Laden operation, the U.S. is resolved to ratchet up an aggressive campaign targeting Mr. Awlaki and other members of his group.
They repeat the US claims about Al-Awlaki and his supposed role with the so-called Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula group.

But this is problematic, to put it mildly. This is an American citizen who has been sentenced to death by assassination by the US government, with no trial and no judicial vetting of the evidence by which he has been sentenced to death.

And not to worry about the two brothers who were erroneously killed instead. According to the Journal, they were "known by local residents for giving shelter to al Qaeda militants," so they obviously deserved to die anyway. At least that's the logic of the targeted-assassination world. If we believe the anonymous "Yememi account." And the US government's un-vetted evidence against Al-Awlaki.

For now, the Global War On Terror goes forward!

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posted at 10:00:00 AM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Friday, May 06, 2011

A bad economy and the out-of-touch Beltway Village

Nero fiddling: that's Rome burning in the background

Last December, Robert Reich observed, "Rarely before in American history has there been more disconnect between Washington and the rest of the nation. Washington is obsessing about the projected federal budget deficit. Everyone else in America is worried about jobs." (The Truth About the Federal Budget Deficit That Noone [sic] Is Willing to Tell 12/02/2010)

Things have moved on in the six months since then, of course. Now the Beltway Village is obsessing not only about deficits, but also about a nonexistent inflation threat, a meaningless S&P report suggesting that someday they might think about downgrading US credit ratings, and - the latest fad way to avoid worrying about unemployment - the possibility of the dollar falling in world exchange rates.

Paul Krugman sums up this pitiful situation in Fears and Failure New York Times 05/05/32011:

From G.D.P. to private-sector payrolls, from business surveys to new claims for unemployment insurance, key economic indicators suggest that the recovery may be sputtering. ...

It’s not as if our political class is feeling complacent. On the contrary, D.C. economic discourse is saturated with fear: fear of a debt crisis, of runaway inflation, of a disastrous plunge in the dollar. Scare stories are very much on politicians’ minds.

Yet none of these scare stories reflect anything that is actually happening, or is likely to happen. And while the threats are imaginary, fear of these imaginary threats has real consequences: an absence of any action to deal with the real crisis, the suffering now being experienced by millions of jobless Americans and their families.
And he asks parenthetically, "Who sends out the memos telling people what to worry about, and why don't I get them?"

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posted at 10:41:00 AM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Pakistan and the end of Bin Laden

Aljazeera English has a 47-minute discussion on Pakistan, terrorism and the US, posted on YouTube 05/05/2011 PDT:



Here is a 24-minute discussion from a day earlier, which brings out how important India is in Pakistan's foreign policy and how that affects US-Pakistan relations:



Tom Hayden, who has been watching - and opposing - wars for decades, has an interesting speculation based on the fact that Osama bin Laden seems to have been rather surprisingly lightly defended, according to the accounts available when he wrote this. Hayden doesn't present it as anything other than speculation, but it's a clever one (Question: Why was Bin Laden so lightly guarded? Peace and Justice Resource Center 05/03/2011):

Apparently, there was no Internet service at the compound, so online meetings with other Al Qaeda leaders or cadre were difficult or impossible. A courier was Bin Laden's slow mode of communication, not Skype.

Perhaps this suggests a different role by Pakistan. What were they to do? They could not hand Bin Laden over to the Americans. They could not arrest him, jail him, try him, convict him. They could not or would not kill him. But they could shelter him in exchange for an unknown agreement on the parameters of his behavior. They could offer him a life in semi-retirement, perhaps with dialysis treatment. If so, the rent Bin Laden paid must have been significant. This might have been the most pragmatic arrangement at which the Pakistani military could arrive.

Then, last July, the Americans found the trail of the courier and, shortly after, the compound was targeted. This may be the back story of the growing antagonism between the U.S. and Pakistani governments, militaries and spy agencies, even the recent blow-up over the CIA contractor Raymond Davis, arrested and finally released after killing two Pakistani nationals in March. President Obama lied about Davis’ CIA affiliations and American diplomats put on enormous pressure before Davis was released. Davis was investigating Pakistani militants in a top-secret operation, which could mean he was on the trail of Bin Laden.

In this imagined scenario, the Americans became certain that Bin Laden was hidden in the compound, and possibly made Pakistan an offer it could not refuse. We know you have Bin Laden under protective custody, they might have said, and now you must give him up or face the consequences. It remains to be investigated further, but how could it be accidental that the Pakistani military didn’t begin “scrambling their forces,” according to the Times, until the very time the Americans had finished the job, packed up the body, and turned over the women and children to Pakistani soldiers who were conveniently present?
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Thursday, May 05, 2011

Is the Obama Administration turning to an exit strategy for Afghanistan?

I certainly hope so. Bob Dreyfuss reads the signals that way in US Officials: Now It's Time to End the War The Nation Online 05/04/2011: "The Obama administration is sending important signals that the killing of Osama bin Laden means that it’s time to wind down the war and talk to the Taliban."

That would be the sensible and practical thing to do. It's been obvious for a while that our exit from Afghanistan would come when US officials got tired of the endless war. A majority of the public has been tired of it for a while.

Anne-Marie Slaughter, a leading "humanitarian hawk" and a former official in Hillary Clinton's State Department, writes in Escaping from Afghanistan's Mad-Max Present: What Osama bin Laden's death means for South Asia's future Foreign Policy 05/03/2011:

It is about getting from where we are now to where we want to be -- a realistic vision of a secure, stable, and self-reliant Afghanistan. Achieving that goal requires seizing the opportunity and the political space afforded us by Osama Bin Laden's death to orchestrate and schedule negotiations on a final political settlement within Afghanistan and a broader regional economic and security agreement. In the meantime, as the endgame begins, the coalitions must move as rapidly as possible to a posture of supporting only those Afghan forces and officials who demonstrably take responsibility for their own security and development. That was, after all, the central premise of how the United States distributed funds to European countries under the Marshall Plan.

Success in Afghanistan is above all a matter of aligning incentives. Military strategy must work side by side with a development strategy and a diplomatic strategy that focuses on building incentives for all the relevant players --Afghan villagers and growing urban populations, Afghan troops, the Afghan government, the Pakistani government, the Afghan and possibly the Pakistani Taliban, India, China, Russia, Turkey, the EU and others -- to act in ways that will advance their own interests and America's ultimate goals. That is a job for diplomats more than it is for military and development experts. It may seem like an impossible job, but the sooner it begins, the better the odds of success.
I'm skeptical about the actual prospects of a Marshall Plan for Afghanistan, even if Congress would fund it. But if the Obama Administration wants to hold up something like that as a face-saving device that accelerates a military pull-out, I won't be complaining terribly about it.


Slaughter - perhaps an unfortunate last name for a foreign policy specialist - also points to a weak point in US counterinsurgency strategy, the idea of establishing secure zones to win the population to the government side. Doing that with local forces is one thing. Doing it with foreign troops is something very different:

Security has to be the top priority. A secure Afghanistan would be a country with low levels of violence that is defended and policed by its own local, regional, and national forces. Security means not only an end to open conflict between the government and insurgents and/or warlords, but also the kind of everyday safety that allows citizens to go to work and to send their children to school. It means a country free from the continual fear of violence or death, whether targeted or random.

Establishing that kind of security across Afghanistan requires not only building up Afghan police and military forces but also creating the incentives for them to risk their lives for the sake of protecting their people. It also means removing U.S. troops as focal points and targets for Taliban attacks, attacks that end up alienating the very villagers that our soldiers seek to protect and win over. Counterinsurgency doctrine assumes that if American troops protect and serve the population of a village, they will have incentives to give up the information those troops need to protect themselves and drive out the enemy. In some cases, for some periods of time, that has proved true. But it is a strategy that assumes the troops providing protection are there to stay for as long as it takes to erase the possibility of retaliation by the enemy that was informed upon. As long as villagers know that American troops are going to leave some day, as they will, and as long as they lack faith in their own government to protect them, their instincts for self-preservation will tell them to keep quiet. Their incentives are to go with the winner, not to help the United States and its allies win. [my emphasis in bold]
I certainly hope the Obama Administration uses this opportunity to push for a rapid exit from the Afghanistan War.

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The "new" torture debate

Amerika schlittert in neue Folterdebatte (America slides into a new torture debate) reads the headline for a Der Spiegel Online article.

Juan Cole writes (No need for Torture. Did a Telephone Call to al-Qaeda in Iraq Unravel Bin Laden? Informed Comment 05/05/2011)

The Obama team is said to have been dismayed by the rapidity with which the national subject has switched from the death of Usama Bin Laden to the use of torture in interrogations.

The first thing to say is that Democratic leaders and the Obama administration only have themselves to blame for this torture issue still being salient. It can be deployed by the Cheney family and their surrogates only because Democratic leaders made a decision not to have anyone prosecuted for the crimes of the Bush administration. Not torture. Not warrantless domestic surveillance. Nada. If there had been prosecutions, and, better, convictions for torture, then people defending it would be defending convicted criminals,and would reveal themselves for what they are. [my emphasis]
This is right. The Obama Administration gave torture advocates a new validation. The opposition party came to power and refused to enforce the laws against torture against perpetrators who had publicly admitted to ordering it. This Administration accepted the Guantánamo mess and the Cheney-Bush alternative prosecution track for terrorist suspects - including indefinite detention without trial. And at least in the case of Bradley Manning, torture is still being practiced by the military. (Or at least was until public and international pressure got them to place Manning in more decent cond

Jonathan Hafetz writes in Bin Laden and the Torture Debate Balkinization 05/04/2011:

Bin Laden's death won't resolve the torture debate, nor will it be the last time the capture or trial of a suspected terrorist reignites controversy over the basic direction of U.S. counter-terrorism policy. What the response to bin Laden's death shows is how questions that before were not subject to debate--i.e., is torture permissible (answer: no, never)--have seemingly become a legitimate subject of public discourse. It also suggests that until the United States establishes a meaningful accountability mechanism and comes to grips with the abuses committed after 9/11, those who support torture will continue to exploit each new opportunity to defend it through the creation of a pro-torture narrative. [my emphasis]
The torture issue isn't going away. There has to be a real accounting for it.

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Wednesday, May 04, 2011

Robert Fisk on Bin Laden's death

Robert Fisk has been talking and writing about Osama bin Laden after his death. Fisk is one of the few Western journalists who has interviewed Bin Laden in person.





Some recent articles of Fisk's from The Independent:

My deadliest moment with the world's most dangerous men 05/03/2011

A close encounter with the man who shook the world 05/03/2011

Was he betrayed? Of course. Pakistan knew Bin Laden's hiding place all along 05/03/2011

The al-Qa'ida leader knew he was a failure. Now US has turned him into martyr 05/05/2011

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Stephen Walt on whether the US murdered Bin Laden

Stephen Walt talks a look at the question, Did the United States murder bin Laden? Foreign Policy 05/04/2011. He indicates that he's "inclined to cut them [the Administration] a bit of slack on this one." Based on what we know so far, he thinks "it would hardly be a stretch to imagine Obama sending in the SEALs not with deliberate orders to kill bin Laden, but with instructions that made his death very, very likely." And he also observes that sending in a SEALs team rather than use a drone strike was likely made in part to minimize noncombatant casualties. And also to be able to make a more credible case that we had really killed Bin Laden.

But he leans toward thinking the intent was to take Bin Laden dead rather than alive:

There are two reasons to suspect that we were more interested in killing him than capturing him. The first is the obvious point that having him in custody would have been a major policy challenge. How many terror threats or hostage takings might have accompanied his trial and incarceration? In the abstract, I'd prefer to have put him on trial for his crimes, to draw the sharpest possible contrast between his lawless behavior and the principles of the rule of law that we like to proclaim. But the practical obstacles to that course would have been daunting, and I can understand why the U.S. government might have preferred just taking him out.

The second reason, of course, is that targeted assassinations have become an increasingly favorite tool of U.S. security policy. And it's not just drone attacks on suspected terrorists in Pakistan or Yemen, targeted killings by special forces are one of the key ways that we are prosecuting the war in Afghanistan. And there's certainly some reason to believe that this is how NATO is trying to resolve the civil war in Libya, though of course we will never say so openly. [my emphasis]
As he's explained in another post, targeted assassination is a problematic policy in a number of ways.


Leaving aside the notion of assassinating heads of state, when dealing with any terrorist group, obviously disrupting, imprisoning or otherwise neutralizing their leaders can have a major effect. Especially if it's a matter of a relatively isolated sect, like the Red Army Faction (RAF) in Germany or the Weather Underground in the US. Although we should note than in those two incidents, the authorities in their respective countries did not concentrate on trying to kill their leaders.

But even isolated groups have some kind of network of sympathizers. When we look at groups founded in tribal societies in which family clan ties are important, like Afghanistan today or (to a significant extent) the American South during Reconstruction, then eliminating the leadership may complicate rather than facilitate counterinsurgency efforts. If you want a terrorist group to lay down its arms and negotiate a peace deal, or even if you want to keep that option open, leaders who are experienced and trusted among the fighters are more likely to be able to make such a deal and see that it's implemented than newer leaders who have to prove their credibility to their followers. Aside from the need of new leaders to prove themselves in military/terrorist operations, there's no guarantee that a new leader will be less effective from the group's side, or more favorable generally from the counterinsurgency's side, than the old ones. Killing a respected leader may make his remaining followers more intransigent.

Israel has practiced targeted assassination for many years against Palestinian leaders. In their case, increasing intransigence and radicalization among the survivors in the terrorist group may have been part of the intention. Or at least an effect that wasn't entirely unwelcome to an Israeli leadership that preferred not to have a negotiated settlement that would likely be acceptable to the Palestinians.

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posted at 1:55:00 PM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Tuesday, May 03, 2011

The changing Bin Laden death story

White House press secretary Jay Carney just gave a press conference in which he insisted that Bin Laden was resisting capture. But he said explicitly that Bin Laden was not armed. He could not explain what kind of "resistance" he was offering. He did say a wife of Bin Laden's was in the room and rushed the soldiers. She was shot in the leg.

It's hard to think based on this account that there was any serious attempt to capture the terrorist leader. John Brennan's statements at his press conference on Monday apparently contained claims that somebody just made up, e.g., the propaganda point of Bin Laden using one of his wives as a shield.

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Howard Fineman on Obama and the death of Osama bin Laden: we finally beat the hippies!

I've never thought Howard Fineman, a generally reliable purveyor of conventional wisdom, was an impressive choice for the Huffington Post's stable of writers. His article on the death of Bin Laden reminds me why; Obama Gets Osama: Goodbye Vietnam The Huffington Post 05/02/2011:

By calmly and meticulously overseeing the successful targeting of Osama bin Laden, President Barack Obama just proved himself -- vividly, in almost Biblical terms -- to be an effective commander-in-chief of the armed forces of the United States.

Good night, Vietnam. Goodbye, George McGovern's anti-war campaign of 1972. Goodbye, Jimmy Carter's pathetically inept hostage-rescue mission in 1980. Goodbye, Bill Clinton and the draft.

Or so Democrats have at least some reason to hope.
There have been all kinds of reactions all over the map to Bin Laden's death. This is the dumbest one I've come across. Bin Laden's death made Howard Fineman flash back to the days that defined the favorite images of Republican "culture warriors" - and decided it proves that George McGovern and the hippies have finally been exorcised from the Democratic Party!

It just doesn't get much dumber than that!

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Bin Laden's death: the original official story

We have initial versions of the military action that ended the life of Osama bin Laden. It will be interesting to see how those stories are amplified as we get more information.

This is a press conference with President Obama's Deputy National Security Advisor John Brennan talking about the killing of Osama bin Laden. Brennan is one of Obama's worst selections for a national security post.



Here is an account from Haaretz by Natasha Mozgovaya, U.S. had no choice but to kill bin Laden, says U.S. defense official 05/02/2011:

The United States has no choice but to kill al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden during the raid on his hideout in Pakistan, President Barack Obama's top counter terrorism adviser said Monday.

"We certainly were preparing to the possibility to capture him. If we had an opportunity to take him alive we would have done it‬," John Brennan said. The minutes passed like days and the president was very concerned about the security of our personnel. It was very intense. And finally we were informed about the results there was a sigh of relief‬." ...

U.S. national security officials said earlier Monday that special forces set out to kill Osama bin Laden and dump his body in the sea to make it harder for the al Qaeda founder to become a martyr.

"This was a kill operation," one of the officials said.

"If he had waved a white flag of surrender, he would have been taken alive," the official added. But the operating assumption among the U.S. raiders was that bin Laden would put up a fight -- which he did.

Bin Laden "participated" in a firefight between the U.S. commandos and residents of the fortified mansion near the Pakistani capital Islamabad where he had been hiding, the official said.

The official would not explicitly say whether bin Laden fired on the Americans, but confirmed that during the course of the 40-minute operation the U.S. team shot bin Laden in the head. ...

A senior Obama administration official said the commandos knew that bin Laden probably would be killed rather than captured.

"U.S. forces are never in a position to kill if there is a way to accept surrender consistent with the ROE (rules of engagement). That said, I think there was broad recognition that it was likely to end in a kill," the administration official said.
Paul Woodward of War in Context, whose work I don't check often enough, notes in The death of Osama bin Laden 05/02/2011 the careful wording in the official version of Osama's demise:

US forces on a mission to kill or capture (not capture or kill) bin Laden, killed him "in a firefight" in Pakistan. At least that’s what the Times reports. Only further into the report does it reiterate what Obama actually said: "After a firefight, they killed Osama bin Laden and took custody of his body."

The White House chooses its words carefully. If bin Laden was killed during the firefight then it's reasonable to assume that this is exactly what Obama would have said. To say that the al Qaeda leader was killed after a firefight seems to suggest he was executed.

The exact manner in which the death occurred may explain why, at least thus far, no photographic evidence has been released. If bin Laden was indeed executed it was most likely for political reasons.

Bin Laden's capture could surely have provided an intelligence bonanza of inestimable value. His subsequent trial would indeed have been a compelling demonstration of what it should mean to deliver justice. But it would also have opened a can of worms.

If bin Laden had been tried in front of a military tribunal then yet again this government would be undermining the strength of the criminal justice system. If on the other hand he was tried in a civilian court, it would be hard for the administration to justify its continued use of military tribunals for any terrorism-related cases.

During a trial, there would be no predicting what kind of strategically damaging information might have been revealed that could have affected US relations with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia or other Gulf nations.

And then there would be the headache of deciding where the trial could take place.

Just over a year ago, it was Attorney General Eric Holder who assured Congress that there was no risk of bin Laden ever being read his Miranda rights.

"The reality is that we will be reading Miranda rights to the corpse of Osama bin Laden. He will never appear in an American courtroom. That’s the reality. ... He will be killed by us, or he will be killed by his own people so he's not captured by us. We know that," Holder said emphatically.
Stephen Walt had an interesting post last week on targeted assassination, Taking Qaddafi out (and not for dinner) Foreign Policy 04/25/2011, occasioned by the obvious decision by NATO to try to kill Muammar Qaddafi as part of the Libya War strategy:

Of course, the United States (and some other countries) have been on this slippery slope for awhile, given our reliance on targeted killings in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen. The practice is troubling on at least three grounds. First, due to the imperfect nature of intelligence and the inevitable "fog of war," targeted killings inevitably murder innocents along with the supposedly guilty. Second, and following from the first point, killing innocent bystanders may create more adversaries than it eliminate, thereby undermining the strategic purpose of the program itself.

Third, and perhaps most important of all, going after foreign leaders - no matter how despicable - helps legitimate a tactic that will eventually be visited back upon us. If the world's most powerful countries see fit to kill any foreign leader that they don't like, what's to stop those same (presumably evil) leaders from threatening to pay us back in kind? Targeted assassinations of foreign despots may seem like a cheap and efficient way of solving today's problem, but we won't enjoy living in a world where foreign adversaries think attacking U.S. leaders (including the president and his inner circle) is a perfectly legitimate way of doing business. And notice that making targeted killings more legitimate tends to level the international playing field: you don't have to be a powerful or wealthy state to organize a few hit squads and cause lots of trouble for your enemies.

So even if this attempt at "decapitation" were to succeed in the short-term, the longer-term consequences may not be quite so salutary. [my emphasis]
Walt is specifically addressing the issue of targeting heads of state and government for assassination. But he's raising issues that our policymakers should be taking fully into account.

In another take, Ismail Khan in the Pakistani English-language paper Dawn, Was Osama killed by US troops or his own guard? 05/03/2011 reports on an alternative version given by a source he allows to remain anonymous:

Reports suggest that Bin Laden was shot dead with a single bullet to his head when he resisted capture, but an official indicated that the 54-year-old mastermind of the biggest and most devastating attack on US soil might have been killed by one of his own guards in line with his will to avert his capture.

"From the scene of the gunbattle it doesn't look like he could have been killed at point blank range from such a close angle, while offering resistance," said an official, who visited the scene of the night assault soon after the departure of the US assault team from the sprawling compound in Thanda Choa, now called Bilal Town, at stone’s throw from Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul.
I'm not sure how someone who saw the scene after the US team left carrying Bin Laden's body could have made a judgment about whether Bin Laden had been shot at close range. But that's the report. Khan also reports that one of the American helicopters went down:

One of the two helicopters involved in the assault went down during action and one official who visited the scene said there was no evidence to suggest that it might have been hit by a rocket or shot from the ground.

“There was no evidence of the helicopter having been shot down,” the official said. “From the wreckage it appears to be more a case of a crash,” he said.

But he said the one loud explosion heard during the gunbattle might have been caused by the departing assault team which bombed the chopper into pieces after retrieving their men and completing their mission.
His report also has two Bin Laden wives being left in the compound and another women wounded. But his report doesn't include the dead woman that John Brennan in the video above says had perhaps been used as a human shield to protect Bin Laden.

We'll see how this story develops. I'm skeptical about the Dawn account. But the idea that Bin Laden could have been killed by one of his own men acting under his orders does offer an alternative explanation. One that in international opinion could be more benign for the United States than the notion that it was an intentional assassination. And the dead wife? Well, maybe Dawn's account was more careful than John Brennan's: Osama "human shield" story may be bogus Salon 05/03/2011. He links to stories at Politico and Reuters noting that Brennan's claim may not be that solid.

Steven Thomma reports for McClatchy, which has consistently had some of the best reporting on the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, in U.S. hopes to bury rest of al Qaida with bin Laden 05/03/2011:

Americans reveled Monday in the death of Osama bin Laden, a moment the Obama administration hoped would be a pivot point in the long war against terrorism by showing the world that bin Laden lived and died as a hypocrite and a coward, and that his terror network is headed toward destruction as well. [my emphasis]
Thomma reminds us:

In fact, bin Laden had little support in the Muslim world, according to country-by-country polls by the Pew Research Center. In six Muslim countries polled this year, his support was highest in the Palestinian territories. Even there, only 34 percent of Muslims said they trusted him to do the right thing. That approval dropped to 25 percent in Indonesia, 22 percent in Egypt, 13 percent in Jordan, 3 percent in Turkey and 1 percent in Lebanon. [my emphasis]
Not surprisingly, alternative theories of Bin Laden's death are already circulating in Pakistan, according to another Dawn report from AFP, Theories on bin Laden's death take root in Pakistan 05/03/2011.

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"Al Qa'ida" after Bin Laden

This is a 24-minute report from Aljazeera English's Inside Story program on the death of Bin Laden and what "Al Qa'ida" is today.



Juan Cole provides a long obituary essay on Bin Laden discussing his career as terrorist leader in Obama and the End of Al-Qaeda Informed Comment 05/02/2011:

The Arab Spring has demonstrated that the Arab masses yearn for liberty, not thuggish repression, for life, not death and destruction, for parliamentary democracy, not theocratic dictatorship. Bin Laden was already a dinosaur, a relic of the Cold War and the age of dictators in which a dissident such as he had no place in society and was shunted off to distant, frontier killing fields. The new generation of young Arabs in Egypt and Tunisia has a shot at a decent life. Obama has put the US on the right side of history in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Libya (where I see crowds for the first time in my life waving American flags). People might want a little help from a distance, but they don't want to see Western troops deployed in fighting units on their soil. [my emphasis]
He also reminds us of Osama's early days as a terrorist leader:

The Reagan administration and the Democratic Congress took the small Carter administration program that supported a Muslim insurgency against the Soviets in Afghanistan and vastly expanded it, ultimately to the tune of billions of dollars. Reagan also twisted the arm of Saudi King Fahd to match US expenditures. Seven major Afghan guerrilla groups were fostered and given CIA training in camps. The Soviets fought back viciously. In that decade, perhaps a million Afghans were killed, 3 million were displaced to Pakistan, 2 million were displaced to Iran, and 2 million were displaced inside Afghanistan. In a country of, at that time, perhaps 15 million persons. It was Apocalypse Now, Kabul version. The two opponents were not attractive. The Communist regime was a cruel dictatorship. The Mujahidin were a mix of tribal and religious forces, but some groups were radical fundamentalists, as with the Hizb-i Islami or Islamic Party of Gulbuddin Hikmatyar, the most bloodthirsty of the Mujahidin. He got a lion’s share of the CIA money (he is today a die-hard opponent of the US whose men have killed many US troops in Afghanistan).

When Reagan convinced King Fahd to help get up a covert paramilitary to fight the Soviets (Reagan really liked private, unaccountable militias; he also backed them in Central America), Fahd had his ministers look around for a fundraiser who could get money from private sources in Saudi Arabia for the Arab volunteers to fight in Afghanistan. Usama Bin Laden was chosen, being a well-known socialite who also had a serious and religious side. Bin Laden jetted back and forth between the mosques of Saudi Arabia and the the Pakistani city of Peshawar, his headquarters in the struggle against the Soviets. The “Arab Afghans” who gathered around him may not have gotten direct CIA training for the most part, though some likely did, but they learned everything they needed to know about setting up cells and carrying out covert operations from the Afghans who had been through the CIA schools.
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Monday, May 02, 2011

Shrub Bush on Bin Laden's death: total absence of self-reflection

It's not that George W. Bush ever presented himself to the public as particularly self-reflective or even especially serious.

But his reaction to the news of Osama bin Laden's demise (from Andrew Buncombe and Omar Waraich, US forces kill Osama bin Laden The Independent 05/02/2011) still surprised me by its cluelessness:

The fight against terror goes on, but tonight America has sent an unmistakable message: No matter how long it takes, justice will be done. [my emphasis]
For a man who will have potential arrest and indictment hanging over him for the rest of his life for torture and even potentially murder in connection with the torture program, it takes some combination of incredible arrogance and lack of appreciation of one's own vulnerabilities to say something like, "No matter how long it takes, justice will be done."

There is a sense, of course, in which that is true. The torture issue isn't going away. There will be a formal reckoning with it someday. For the good of the United States, I hope it's sooner rather than later.

The Obama Administration should take a hint from Bush's statement and do its duty to prosecute the torture crimes of the previous Administration. And of this one, if the evidence warrants it.

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posted at 11:48:00 AM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Osama bin Laden dead: So now we can end all our wars?

To ask the question is to answer it. And if I didn't already know the answer, Lara Logan was on CBS a few minutes after I heard the news Sunday evening assuring us that the War on Terror was "by no means" over.

This is President Obama's announcement speech from late Sunday: [this video from the White House shows as no longer available; the White House YouTube channel and it says the embedding is being disabled by request. What the heck is going on?]



[So here's the PBS Newshour version instead:]



This is a biographical sketch of Bin Laden from Aljazeera English:



We're spending more today in real terms for the military than we did at the height of the Cold War. The justification has been "Al Qa'ida" and The Terrorists. But it's been apparent for a while that Bin Laden's own Al Qa'ida organization as it existed in 2001 has not been operative for a long time. Bin Laden was obviously an important target because of his responsibility for the 9/11 attacks. But his importance as a terrorist mastermind on an ongoing basis has probably been minimal.


Former State Department spokesman PJ Crowley tweeted, "Does #binLaden's death matter? There are franchises around the world, but he was a major unifying force. The movement now lacks a center."

A center of sort for jihadists, maybe. But the current movement against the Arab dictatorships took little inspiration from Bin Laden or the jihadists, based on what we've seen so far.

It's good for the reputation of the US that Bin Laden was caught dead rather than alive. It would have been great if he had been captured, brought to America to stand trial and convicted in a civilian court under the American justice system. But this Administration would have been unlikely to deal with him that way. They would probably have sent him to Guantanamo and waited years to give him a military commissions trial, or just keep him in prison permanently. That would have made him more of a martyr to jihadists than his death in battle will.

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posted at 12:34:00 AM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


Sunday, May 01, 2011

The legendary May 1, 2003 Mission Accomplished speech

Out of curiosity, I went back to check the PBS Newshour commentary from Sleepy Mark Shields and David "Bobo" Brooks on May 2, 2003, where they gave their considered evaluation of Bush's Mission Accomplished speech the day before. I expected to hear Bobo praising the speech and Shields, who seemed to be more often fully conscious in those days than now, to be more critical. After listening to their commentary, I'm struck by what a measure of the depth of both their judgments it represented.

Today, of course, the Mission Accomplished speech is a subject of ridicule, generally regarded as one of the silliest and most ill-advised Presidential stunts ever. Fortunately, viewers of the Quality TV offered by the PBS Newshour were treated to the sober judgments of Bobo and Sleepy Mark, who could obviously see beyond the superficial judgments of the moment:

The president's victory speech

JIM LEHRER: All right. What did you think of the president's victory speech last night?

DAVID BROOKS: It was actually an interesting aesthetic debate over whether him flying into the boat was gimmicky and demeaning, which is what mature people thought or gimmicky and cool, which is what I thought. And so there is sort of an aesthetic judgment there. To me, the important things were the fact that he recognized these sailors who have been away from their families for ten months, some of them missing ... 150 missing the birth of their children. To me when this whole war proceeds into history, this cultural moment will be defined by those sailors and soldiers and the young people who are looking at this war will have their world view shaped by what they see of those people. And it will be totally different the way the Vietnam era saw the world. That will be an interesting thing.
The other substantive thing Bush said, he called this action in Iraq a battle. He said it was part of a longer war and you really got a sense of his mentality. Afghanistan was part of it. The al-Qaida fight was part of it. But we now got a lot more parts to go. And he said significantly the tide is turning. The tide... but you get the sense that he doesn't feel that something is over. He is in the middle of something Iran, Iraq, Syria. It is all not militarily but it's part of a life-long process for him.

JIM LEHRER: How do you feel about it?

MARK SHIELDS: Jim, I thought it was just in view of presidential presentation, it was spectacular. I mean, it was visually arresting. The president did the right thing. He struck the right note by not taking a victory lap himself, but offering a victory salute to the sailors, who, as David pointed, to the point of exhaustion. I mean these are people that have been out there ten months; 150 children have been born while they were at sea off this crew alone.

JIM LEHRER: No carrier has been out as long as this one.

MARK SHIELDS: No carrier has been out this long. And it was a symbolism that was heavy. The Abraham Lincoln; that did not go unnoticed. The fact that it was the only carrier that had been in both Afghanistan and Iraq -- but, you know, will it be a success? I thought of other great presidential moments. I thought of Jack Kennedy at Berlin in 1963. Ronald Reagan at Berlin in 1987 and Normandy....

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Gorbachev, bring down this wall.

MARK SHIELDS: One thing missing. I talked to professor Robert Schmuhl today, who's the author of "Stagecraft" and "Statecraft," and sort of an expert on this, and he pointed out two things to me. One, 9:00 Thursday night is the most viewed television hour of the entire week, so it was very shrewd scheduling on the part of the White House; they had their maximum audience then. But the other thing was there was not a memorable line that came from the speech. There wasn't "Ich bin ein Berliner". There was not a "tear down that wall." And I think we'll see this footage over and over again, probably with a voiceover of this is the president who is comfortable with his troops.

JIM LEHRER: Rather than hearing his words --

Assessing the criticisms of the speech

DAVID BROOKS: One of the nice things he did was talk about the action as the activation of America's true nation, not a Republican thing, not a Democratic thing. He talked about FDR's four freedoms, he talked about the Truman Doctrine; the Reagan Cold War policies. This -- he cast this as part of a long-term American project advancing the tide of democracy and on the Lincoln made researches to the Gettysburg Address as part of the founding of that.

JIM LEHRER: Some of the punditry suggested that the president and his handlers used these sailors and that aircraft carrier and all of the circumstances, props for his presidential reelection campaign -- cheap shot?

DAVID BROOKS: Not entirely. I went home last night in a terrible mood because I thought a lot of the pundits had ignored the sailors, had treated them as they were bunting in a big campaign event. Whereas the president paid tribute to the sailors. I wrote this up on a spasm of anger on the magazine's Web site and I got a lot of thoughtful commentaries -- well a minority of thoughtful commentaries -- some of which said the president started the politicization of this with the gimmick of flying in and treating it as a campaign prop. That's not an illegitimate shot.

It was -- some people who support the war believe he cheapened it in by flying in, by not delivering it from the Oval Office, by landing in military uniform, but I do think he at least paid tribute to those people unlike the pundits.

MARK SHIELDS: The most recurring criticism I heard of the president was the uniform, that you recall during the 2000 campaign, questions he was missing from the meetings in Alabama when he went to work on a political campaign there, didn't show up for reserve meetings. There was a question just exactly what his commitment was to the Texas Air National Guard, especially in the very important Battle of Amarillo. And so that was raised by some critic. I have flown in on to the Abraham Lincoln, I've spent a night on the Abraham Lincoln.

JIM LEHRER: I didn't remember watching you doing it live.

MARK SHIELDS: I didn't have the cameras. One shrewd thing the president did do when he got off in his flight suit was he had the helmet off, you know, the helmet. Because when you leave the helmet on, Condi Rice left the helmet on for the picture and nobody.... I don't care who it is --

JIM LEHRER: Looks good in a helmet?

MARK SHIELDS: Chuck Yeager doesn't look good. John Glenn didn't look good. I mean, it just dwarfs the person, so he was smart enough to do that. But sure, it is a legitimate question, but I don't think there is any question overall that last night was a smashing success politically for the president.

Looking ahead to the 2004 election

JIM LEHRER: And the polls, there is a new poll today, Washington Post/ABC Poll that shows the president enormously popular with the public, enormous confidence the public has in his ability to handle foreign affairs but not so much with domestic affairs. Why don't the two carry over?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, there are a number of things. The president said he wanted to be uniter not a divider when he ran. That hasn't worked out. It's his fault whether he has been a divisive figure as Democrats were charged or whether in fact the Democrats have been polarized. The president never got the boost out of this war that his father got for his leadership, in large part because his father did not have that same level of antipathy and opposition from the Democrats. And the reality is, Jim, if you're Karl Rove going into 2004, you want it to be about George W. Bush commander in chief on the deck of the Abraham Lincoln. You don't want to be about 6 percent unemployment today.

JIM LEHRER: Sure. But the Democrats, who are now the nine who want to take President Bush's job, are going to have a debate this weekend in South Carolina, are going to be talking about domestic things, are they not?

DAVID BROOKS: Right. And they'll have an advantage. They start way behind; 69 percent of the registered Democrats can't name one of the people running for the nomination. So they're just beginning.

JIM LEHRER: Now that is really being behind --

DAVID BROOKS: 9 percent is the John Kerry, they can name John Kerry tied with Al Gore, the number of people who still think Al Gore is running. So they're just starting. The advantage they have is that there have been two George Bushs. There has been the foreign policy Bush who has been a progressive, bold, very moralistic person -- somewhat taking Democratic rhetoric of human rights and liberation of peoples, using it for his own purposes and to me, reducing the Democrats to seeming somewhat churlish and conservative; but on the domestic side, the moral progressive, bold vision just hasn't carried over. The Republican domestic policy, the White House domestic policy is the same basic Republican orthodox policy that you had five years ago or ten years ago. There hasn't been sort of a new post-9/11 George Bush on domestic policy. To me, that's why he is still vulnerable [my emphasis]

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posted at 5:00:00 PM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink


It was eight years ago today...

When Dear Leader Bush informed us that we had triumphed in the Iraq War.


Greg Mitchell recalls how our star reporters and pundits fawned over him in At 8th Anniversary: How Media Heavies Hailed Bush's 'Mission Accomplished' Stunt Huffington Post 04/29/2011. And that didn't include just FOX News. He cites babbling adoration from Chris Matthews, Gwen Ifill and Maureen Dowd, who wrote:

Out bounded the cocky, rule-breaking, daredevil flyboy, a man navigating the Highway to the Danger Zone, out along the edges where he was born to be, the further on the edge, the hotter the intensity.

He flashed that famous all-American grin as he swaggered around the deck of the aircraft carrier in his olive flight suit, ejection harness between his legs, helmet tucked under his arm, awestruck crew crowding around. Maverick was back, cooler and hotter than ever, throttling to the max with joystick politics. Compared to Karl Rove's "revvin' up your engine" myth-making cinematic style, Jerry Bruckheimer's movies look like Lizzie McGuire.

This time Maverick didn't just nail a few bogeys and do a 4G inverted dive with a MiG-28 at a range of two meters. This time the Top Gun wasted a couple of nasty regimes, and promised this was just the beginning.
We might have hoped our media stars would have learned something. We could hope for a pony, too. As Mitchell reminds us:

Even today, nearly eight years later, the often "overconfident" reporting from Baghdad and Kabul sometimes takes your breath away. At least two U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq this week so far, and over 45,000 of our troops remain there today.
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posted at 1:19:00 PM by Bruce Miller | +Save/Share | | | Backlink




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