No! It couldn't have been about that! Could it?

John Judis writes in Determining Factor: Oil And U.S. Diplomacy The New Republic Online 04/26/06:

It's not fashionable to say this, but the Iraq war was about oil. Not entirely, but certainly more than it was about weapons of mass destruction or a link to Al Qaeda. The 1991 war with Iraq was also about oil, and if the United States goes to war in the future with Iran or with China, it will likely be about oil.

Oil is a scarce resource that is vital to the American economy. Domestic production peaked in the early 1970s. The United States currently imports about 60 percent of its oil. World supplies are expected to peak in a decade or so. Yet American oil consumption is rising steadily--it went up by 3.9 million barrels a day between 1995 and 2004 - and is almost matched by the rise in consumption from China - 2.8 million barrels a day during the same period. With demand continuing to rise, and supply failing to keep pace, prices can be expected to rise, and at a certain point to skyrocket. That could spell doom for the American economy. ...

Why did the United States invade Iraq? Well, there were lots of reasons, but one reason was to create a petroleum counterweight to OPEC. Neoconservatives within the administration assumed that a pro-American Iraq would quit OPEC, and, with its plentiful reserves, drive down world prices. That didn't happen, of course. Now one reason the Bush administration feels it must stay in Iraq is to prevent the destruction of oil-rich Kirkuk in a civil war and to ensure that a new Iraqi regime will not join Iran in attempting to frustrate American oil needs.

The United States could follow a different strategy, combining drastic conservation at home with an attempt to work a new international oil agreement that would prevent competition over supplies giving rise to war. Call it green internationalism. But don't expect the Bush administration to undertake either of these steps. And don't, unfortunately, expect a cautious Democratic administration to do so either.

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