"Compassionate conservatism" born again in Cal-i-forn-i-a?

The polls haven't even opened yet (though the absentee ballots have been out for a while), and at least one Republican strategist is talking up Arnold Schwarzenegger as a model for the Republicans of the coming years. Ed Rollins, one of Ronald Reagan's top operatives, seems to think Schwarzenegger's strong lead in the gubernatorial campaign validates a more moderate image: Democratic leanings boost Schwarzenegger in tough year for GOP by Carla Marinucci San Francisco Chronicle 11/06/06:

Even before Tuesday's vote is tallied, "Arnold has become the New Republican - someone who talks fiscal conservatism and put together a coalition of Democrats and Republicans," said GOP strategist Ed Rollins. "Certainly, he can become a very significant role model."

Should he win re-election - and polls put him in a commanding lead - Schwarzenegger's bounce back from unpopularity a year ago will show how California "has always been a trendsetter," Rollins said. Politically, "it's always two to six years ahead of the rest of the country."

Should we call this "compassionate conservatism". Because so far, Schwarzenegger's version of it has been nothing more than election-year desperation.

Rollins sounds like a throwback to the pre-Cheney/Bush era. If the Democrats take one or both Houses of Congress, the Republicans will go into a two-year binge of even more intense partisanship. The path he suggests would have also been a plausible conclusion from the Republicans 1998 midterm setbacks in the wake of their drive for Clinton's impeachment. But they charged ahead with the impeachment and a rightwing agenda anyway. Dubya did adopt the "compassionate conservatism" marketing approach in 2000, but even then he lost the election.

Nationally, today's Republican Party, whose Congressional representatives almost to a person supported the Torture Legalization Act in October has become too authoritarian in its practices, too dependent of its core conservative white Protestant base in the South, and too attached at the hip to the energy industry and companies like Halliburton to actually take some sort of 1960s-style moderate Republican turn in policy at this point. It will take more than just one midterm election to do that.


Marinucci notes that "other Republicans may find it difficult to mirror [Schwarzenegger's] profile."

And, among other challenges for Schwarzenegger in trying to pass himself off as a moderate, if he's re-elected he's going to be working with a real pro-labor Democratic attorney general, Jerry Brown, who's not reluctant to wage a political fight when it's necessary.

Columnist Dan Walters writes in Jerry Brown returning to old haunt Sacramento Bee 11/06/06:

Barring some divine intervention, it appears as though Jerry Brown will be returning to Sacramento as attorney general, which raises this question: Is the town big enough for Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger? ...

Brown's post-gubernatorial life was characteristically erratic. He ran for president periodically, spent some time in India with Mother Teresa, served as state Democratic Party chairman for a bit, did a stint as a radio talk show host and, for the past eight years, occupied the mayor's office in Oakland, the city in which he settled after living in Los Angeles and San Francisco. And he'll be returning to Sacramento, the scene of - depending on one's view of his previous tenure - his greatest triumphs or his greatest crimes against good governance. ...

He loves the spotlight, loves to make waves and headlines, loves to be unpredictable and remind everyone that he's a bit different. And with Schwarzenegger virtually certain to win re-election this year - by reinventing himself, much as Brown did in 1978, becoming a "born-again tax cutter" after opposing Proposition 13's tax revolt -- the former governor could almost naturally become the opposition rallying figure, if he's willing to play that role.

Of course, Brown could throttle his instincts and adopt a more passive public image, concentrating on the job of attorney general and continuing what has been a cordial, mutually beneficial relationship with Schwarzenegger. It would, however, be disappointing were Brown to end his political career on a whimper, rather than with a bang.

That would be disappointing. But, fortunately, a highly unlikely option.

Tags: california election, jerry brown, schwarzenegger

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