US officials are reported to have believed that the seizure of 15 British sailors and Royal Marines in March may have been a tit-for-tat response by Iran seeking to put pressure on the US through Britain to free the Iranian officials taken in Arbil. In April, the Bush administration overruled a recommendation by the US State Department that the five officials, whom it claims are Iranian Revolutionary Guard intelligence officers, be freed because they were no longer useful. One reason advanced for not freeing them was that it would look like a quid pro quo for the 15 Britons being freed by Iran.

The Iraqi government is extremely worried by the prospect of the US starting a war against Iran, saying that this would inevitably lead to Iran striking back, probably using Iranian proxies or sympathisers, in Iraq. Most of the parties, Shia and Kurdish, in the Baghdad government have strong links with Iran. These are unlikely to be severed by the US seizing visiting Iranian officials and in the past Iran has retaliated either covertly or overtly. The recent detention of a visiting Iranian official in the Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah by US forces led to Iran immediately closing its border with Iraqi Kurdistan.