Is the Huck a long shot for the Republican nomination?

John Williams at the Arkansas Blog has been looking closely at the Huck's voting percentages. In Huckabee takes silver 01/19/08, he writes:

According to this exit poll [Exit Polls: South Carolina CNN.com 01/19/08], 60 percent of [South Carolina]’s voters identified as evangelicals, but Huckabee failed to get a majority of them yet again – 43 percent. He only polled 14 percent among those who were non-evangelical. My calculations show that around 85 percent of Huckabee voters were evangelical. Through five contests he’s proven incapable of expanding his base, which spells doom for him the way the race stands now.

For now the entire Republican field, with the exception of Duncan Hunter, is staying in. Even in the event that someone dropped out, though, I’m not sure that Huckabee would be able to siphon off that many supporters. There’s been some speculation that Thompson hurt Huckabee in SC, but it may not be as simple as that. Thompson polled evenly among evangelicals and non-evangelicals. Huckabee could expect some of the evangelical portion of that, but it’s not clear how much. From what I know of Thompson voters they’re for Reagan-conservative values – which is not exactly Huck’s brand of conservatism.

This tells me a couple of things. The Huck hasn't yet been able to sway many Republican voters with his theocratic message outside of the core Christianists. Of course, the Christianists are the most important part of the Party base. So that doesn't mean he's no longer a serious candidate, by any means.

It also tells me that of the current Republicans candidates, it's Huckabee's theocratic message delivered with cornpone posturing that resonates most strongly with the Christianist Republican base. Far and away. So the Huck's campaign is giving us a better public look than we've had in a while at where the Christian Right will take us if pro-democracy voters allow them to.

Tags: christian right, christianism, mike huckabee

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