Wednesday, October 15, 2008

What do I know?

From an article in the NY Times on the latest CBS News / New York Times poll:

Voters who said their opinions of Mr. Obama had changed recently were twice as likely to say they had grown more favorable as to say they had worsened. And voters who said that their views of Mr. McCain had changed were three times more likely to say that they had worsened than to say they had improved.

The top reasons cited by those who said they thought less of Mr. McCain were his recent attacks and his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate.
I don't get it. I would have thought voters would pay little attention to the mudslinging, and even less to Palin, and that the main reason for the shift towards Obama would be the financial meltdown and McCain's erratic response to that crisis. I am glad that the crude dishonesty and mean-spirited personal attacks are costing McCain, but I am also surprised.

Shows how little I know.

Noam Scheiber at TNR points out that Obama is doing very well among white voters, for a Democrat of any color. He's pulling 45% of whites in the poll, tied with McCain in that category. Apparently, that's a higher percentage than our side usually gets, and again one is left to wonder. I thought these were the voters we needed Hillary to get for us.

Each poll that comes out reinforces a growing sense of victory, and an emerging confidence that real change may be within reach. I want to celebrate, but I am increasingly confused by the numbers. I will be looking forward to the exit polls and final vote tallies on election night, and to the analysis that follows.

Something strange and wonderful is happening, but it feels like a dream.

posted at 12:52:00 PM by Neil

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