Wednesday, October 27, 2010

A cheatsheet for the horserace in next Tuesday's House elections

David N. Wasserman of The Cook Political Report points to Five House Races To Watch On Election Night 10/27/2010 for an early read on what Republican gains in the House may be:

In Indiana and Kentucky, the first two states to report in results, there are five Democratic seats worth watching. From highest to lowest likelihood of switching to the GOP, they are the seats of Reps. Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) (who is running for the Senate), Baron Hill (Ind.), Ben Chandler (Ky.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), and John Yarmuth (Ky.). ...

If Republicans win either or both of Chandler and Donnelly's seats, they are almost assuredly on their way to taking control of the House. Even if they do not carry either, but win the Ellsworth and Hill seats, they could still be on a trajectory for a net gain in the mid-40s. If Rep. John Yarmuth falls to Tea Party-backed GOP nominee Todd Lally in Democratic-leaning Louisville, however, then all bets are off and Republicans could be on their way to picking up in excess of 60 seats. The situation in the House is much more fluid than it is in the Senate, so thank Indiana and Kentucky for giving us a neat early measuring stick when polls close on Tuesday.
It's not over until it's over. But Democrats are expecting a sobering experience next Tuesday, especially in the House races.

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