Friday, April 28, 2006

Iran War: More on the "spiral conflict"

Michael Levi reports briefly in TPM Cafe on his recent visit to Iran. He writes:

Iranian leaders appear confident that Iran has the upper hand, which makes them less willing to compromise. Domestic politics are driving leading politicians – most notably hard-line President Ahmadinejad and "pragmatic conservative" Ayatollah Rafsanjani – to out-hawk each other, at least in public, on the nuclear issue. And while key officials allied with Rafsanjani sometimes appear slightly more conciliatory, many believe that they are steadily losing power.

If there is a solution to be found – whether diplomatic or coercive – miscommunication may keep us from discovering it. Iranians that I spoke with – even the more pro-Western ones – often misunderstand both the fundamental judgments underlying American strategy, and the political dynamics that drive policy here. (my emphasis)

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