Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Thinking NuclearJuan Cole attracted some attention by the clever title of his post on the Iranian nuclear program: Iran Can Now Make glowing Mickey Mouse Watches 04/12/06. In the post itself, he explains why the current Iranian nuclear capability is far from being on the point of making a bomb.But this comment is worth noticing, also: Iran is a good ten years away from having a bomb, and since its leaders, including Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei, say they do not want an atomic bomb because it is Islamically immoral, you have to wonder if they will ever have a bomb.Obviously, nuclear nonproliferation is too important for other countries to rely on professions of benign intent. But with the Bush administration considering preventive nuclear war against Iran, these things should be thoroughly discussed in the American debate. To the extent there is a debate over attacking Iran. Meanwhile, in BushWorld, Stephen Rademaker, the US Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, is putting out an alarming message: Iran Could Produce Nuclear Bomb in 16 Days, U.S. Says Bloomberg 04/12/06. I'm getting a bad feeling about this. Billmon has also put some thought into what the world might look like after the nuclear "bunker-buster" bombs explode in Iran: Mutually Assured Dementia 04/11/06. How would other nations react? Our so-called press corps? What would the partisan Republican spin be? Could the Democrats keep it together to protest against it? Would the public support it? On the matter of public opinion, I'm afraid Billmon gets a little too far into H.L. Mencken mode for my way of thinking. I could picture an intial reaction of majority approval. But I would expect shock and fear would quickly come to predominate. This following part of Billmon's exercise in imagination unfortunately sounds all too probable. One can assume (or at least hope) that first use of nuclear weapons would turn America into an international pariah, at least in the eyes of global public opinion.And also this one: For most Americans, then, the initial impact of war with Iran could play out in the same theatre of the absurd as the first Gulf War and the opening phases of the Iraq invasion – that is to say, on their living room TVs. And if there's one place where a nuclear first strike could be made to appear almost normal, or even a good thing, it's on the boob tube.And when God is on our side, as the Christian Right leaders assume that he is when it comes to killing Muslims, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Republicans defend it right down the line. Billmon also links to this new article from Foreign Affairs Mar/Apr 2006: The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy by Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press. | +Save/Share | | |
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