Friday, May 05, 2006

West Nile, Malaria and Dengue Fever - Oh My!

An article caught my eye this morning in the WaPo, Climate Change Drives Disease To New Territory,Viruses Moving North to Areas Unprepared for Them, Experts Say. It begins with the story of an 80 year old man who had died from West Nile Fever - in Canada. It continues with the horrifying facts on the swift movement of tropical diseases into the northern hemisphere:

Global warming -- with an accompanying rise in floods and droughts -- is fueling the spread of epidemics in areas unprepared for the diseases, say many health experts worldwide. Mosquitoes, ticks, mice and other carriers are surviving warmer winters and expanding their range, bringing health threats with them.
They are talking here about encephalitis in Sweden, the mosquito that carries dengue fever being reported as far north as the Netherlands. Diseases like malaria we once thought were safely contained in places we might never go, now looking like distinct possibilities in our neighborhoods - not "someday," but in our lifetimes:

"Things we projected to occur in 2080 are happening in 2006. What we didn't get is how fast and how big it is, and the degree to which the biological systems would respond," Epstein said in an interview in Boston. "Our mistake was in underestimation."

The "Epstein" speaking here is Dr. Paul Epstein of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School. So, one of the foremost experts in this field admitting to underestimating the threat of global climate change in his sphere of study. In the meantime, here's what's happening in the government-funded sphere of climate study, from a WaPo article of a month ago (Climate Researchers Feeling Heat from White House):

Scientists doing climate research for the federal government say the Bush administration has made it hard for them to speak forthrightly to the public about global warming. The result, the researchers say, is a danger that Americans are not getting the full story on how the climate is changing.

(snip)

The assertion that climate scientists are being censored first surfaced in January when James Hansen, who directs NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told the New York Times and The Washington Post that the administration sought to muzzle him after he gave a lecture in December calling for cuts in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. (NASA Administrator Michael D. Griffin issued new rules recently that make clear that its scientists are free to talk to members of the media about their scientific findings and to express personal interpretations of those findings.

Two weeks later, Hansen suggested to an audience at the New School University in New York that his counterparts at NOAA were experiencing even more severe censorship. "It seems more like Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union than the United States," he told the crowd.

(snip)

NOAA scientists...cite repeated instances in which the administration played down the threat of climate change in their documents and news releases. Although Bush and his top advisers have said that Earth is warming and human activity has contributed to this, they have questioned some predictions and caution that mandatory limits on carbon dioxide could damage the nation's economy.
I have a feeling that the mandatory limits on carbon dioxide would have far less of a damaging effect on this nation's economy (an untrue statement in any case) than epidemics of tropical diseases laying waste to significant segments of the population. It's time for scientists from all fields of study to unanimously make public the dangers that lie ahead if we don't all make every effort possible to avert them. If public health threats are seventy years ahead of the predicted climate change curve, then at the very least we deserve to be made very aware of them. The Harvard Medical School site is an interesting one to explore, with a newsletter, and many papers made available.

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