Friday, July 14, 2006

The Israeli-Palestinian-Lebanon crisis

This article Why Israel Hit Back So Hard by Matthew Kalman San Francisco Chronicle 07/14/06 describes the official Israeli position on the current situation:

"The Israeli government is determined to hit Hamas and Hezbollah and destroy their infrastructure in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and to reach the point where the Palestinian Authority on the one hand and the Lebanese government on the other hand, probably with the support from the world community, will ... make sure that the use of weapons will be the monopoly of the state," said Ehud Barak, the former prime minister who initiated the Israeli pullout from Lebanon in May 2000.

Second, Israeli intelligence believes that Iran - Hezbollah's main bankroller - initiated Wednesday's raid. Israeli leaders believe the time has come to clip Hezbollah's wings before the Iranian influence grows even stronger. Iran is passionately committed to the destruction of the Jewish state and provides funding, training and arms for Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah.

According to Israeli intelligence sources, Iran gave Hezbollah the green light for the raid. These sources said Hezbollah's extensive rocket barrage on northern Israel followed talks in Damascus between Hezbollah officials and Ali Larijani, head of Iran's supreme national security council, who arrived in the Syrian capital on Wednesday morning. ...

Israeli Foreign Ministry Deputy Director General Gideon Meir said the government had "specific information that Hezbollah is planning to transfer the kidnapped soldiers to Iran. (my emphasis)
I'm still cautiously optimistic that the Bush administration has given up any plans to attack Iran directly this year, although there have been credible reports of US Special Forces conducting preparatory military operations inside Iran. Still, I remember this time in 2002, I had the feeling that the saber-rattling over Iraq had quieted down some. Now we know that the administration had already decided - probably long before that - to invade Iraq. As Andrew Card famously said, they didn't want to roll out "new products" in August. Although actually, Dark Lord Cheney's speech to the Nashville VFW that kicked off the final public drive to war was in late August of 2002.

So, when we see Iran's name popping up in these news reports, it's worth paying close attention.


I know that Israeli intelligence has legendary status in general public opinion in the United States. But Israeli intelligence also confirmed Iraq's nonexistent WMDs to the United States in the run-up to the disaster now known as the Iraq War. Both Israeli and British intelligence were relying on bureaucratic "lie factories" not unlike those that Cheney and Rummy set up in their offices.

To emphasize the point, Israeli intelligence was just as wrong as the Bush administration on the phony claims about Saddam's WMDs. And that's pretty wrong. I assume that someone in their intelligence organizations actually had better judgment, just as many of the relevant experts in the US government did. But after that experience, I don't put a high level of confidence in public announcements of what Israeli intelligence is supposedly saying about Iran.

I should say that it's not implausible that Hizbollah in Lebanon got at least passive acquiesence from Iran before acting, because Hizbollah is a Shi'a group closely aligned with Iran. But that doesn't mean that someone in Iran is necessarily approving every operational move of Hizbollah.

Israel's public position doesn't seem to foresee any immediate end to the military actions against Lebanon: Olmert to Annan: Operation will end after Hezbollah is disarmed by Aluf Benn, Amos Harel and Yoav Stern Ha'aretz 07/14/06

Israel will not end its military operation in Lebanon until the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for disarming Hezbollah and deploying the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Friday.

Annan informed Olmert that he was sending a UN team to the region. Olmert said he would cooperate with the team only if its objective would be to return the Israel Defense Forces soldiers abducted by Hezbollah and the full implementation of Resolution 1559.
This article explains that Despite Hezbollah's Ties to Iran and Syria, It Also Acts Alone: The U.S. has blamed the militants' patrons for the Mideast crisis, but some experts aren't sure by Paul Richter, Josh Meyer and Sebastian Rotella Los Angeles Times 07/14/06. They report:

Iran and Syria each have long-standing ties to Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim militant group, and no Western government doubts that they provide financial, political and logistical support. But some officials and experts say Hezbollah can also move on its own initiative, for its own reasons, even as it seeks to avoid any move that would displease its chief patrons. ...

Sean McCormack, the chief State Department spokesman, said the countries "subcontract" terrorist attacks through Hezbollah.

"Hezbollah received material support from Iran…. The Syrian government provides political as well as other kinds of support," he said. "So I think it's really time for everybody to acknowledge that these two states do have some measure of control over Hezbollah."

At the same time, even the State Department's annual report on terrorism notes that Hezbollah is capable of independent action.

"Hezbollah is closely allied with Iran and often acts at its behest, but it also can and does act independently," this year's report says.

Israel declared that primary responsibility for the raid lay with the Lebanese government. But officials also have made it clear that they believe Iran and Syria were involved in the attack.

"I don't have evidence that there were direct instructions," said one Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "But they were under the influence of the Iranian government."
At the end, they quote for CIA official Milton Bearden saying:

"People will say they know why it happened, but they don't know," Bearden said. "Never discount the possibility of things in the Middle East to just spin out of control so easily that people say, 'How did we get here?'

"It is possible it was a gross miscalculation," he said, "which are responsible for many wars in the Middle East."
We don't have to adopt Rummy's "duh" position of "stuff happens" to recognize that sometime people screw up and events do spin out of control.

And what are they saying about this at the Republican State News Service, aka, FOX News? John Gibson has apparently found out that Iran planned and directed the whole thing: Iran Attacking Israel Is Really Attack on U.S. by John Gibson 07/13/06 (yeah, like FOX News worries about having actual factual information to draw conclusions). Gibson writes:

When Hezbollah attacks Israel — or attacks anybody — it is Iran that is really doing the attacking.

If Iran can get the world to the brink of a war with just a few conventional explosives, a militia of irregulars and some suicide bombers, think what they could do with a real nuke.

Iran is attacking Israel, but it is really attacking us. That's because it knows that the U.S. will come to Israel's aid if things get really rough and eventually any Iran-Israel clash will get very rough.
If we were pretending that Gibson was trying to make a serious analysis, we might ask why he seems to be ignoring Syria's widely-acknowledged influence on Hizbollah. But that misses the point of a FOX News commentary, doesn't it?

When the Iranians get nukes this ruckus we're witnessing today will look like a walk in the park. If the Iranians get their nuke which they can strap to their missiles, they can make good on their promise to remove Israel from the map and to bring the world economy to a standstill by blasting, or threatening, the Mideast oil fields.

It seems like a war between Israel and some terror groups. It's really a war by Iran on us.
For this particular spokesman of the Republican State News Service, the Israeli-Lebanon should actually be understood as an attack by Iran on the United States.

As loony as it sounds, to the Christian Right zealots, having the United States jump into a war that right now is mainly a major military action by Israel makes total sense. As one of the more belligerant (but by no means untypical on this issue) exponents of this view puts it:

Presidents and foreign leaders have been trying to bring about a workable peace plan in the Middle East for decades. The sad truth is that none of them are going to work.

There will be no lasting peace in Israel until the Messiah comes back to earth and sets up his earthly kingdom in Jerusalem ...

The pieces and players which could bring about the war of Ezekiel 38 and 39 are moving into place. It couldn’t have happened a few years ago but now the alliances are being formed and arms are being stockpiled as that awful day approaches, the day when all the world will forsake Israel. But the day when the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob fights for her, it will be the bloodiest day in the history of mankind as all but one sixth of the armies that come against Israel will fall on the field of battle.

There is nothing any human being can do to prevent the events which are prophesied in the word of God.

Keep your eyes on Israel, it is the scroll on which the last few pages of history will be written.
Meanwhile, the Sunni rulers of Saudi Arabia are saying they are not so happy about Hizbollah, either:

Saudi sideswipe at Hezbollah Aljazeera 07/1406:

Saudi Arabia has blamed "elements" inside Lebanon for the violence with Israel, in unusually frank language directed at Hezbollah and its Iranian backers.

"A distinction must be made between legitimate resistance and uncalculated adventures undertaken by elements inside [Lebanon] and those behind them without recourse to the legal authorities and consulting and co-ordinating with Arab nations," a statement carried by the official news agency SPA said.
Laura Rozen writes:

As Sy Hersh said at a talk today, and I'm paraphrasing, sometimes big wars get started almost by accident. He also said based on conversations with his Israeli and Lebanese sources this morning, that Israel's goal may be more limited - carving out a 20 - 25 mile buffer or free fire zone into southern Lebanon, to prevent Hezbollah from striking into Israel. ...

A colleague knowledgeable about the region writes, "I have a hard time believing it can get much worse, mostly because of the imbalance of power, even if Israel decides to strike a few targets in Syria. I think there will be a lot of calls for the US to step in and do more than issue statements, dispatch Condi or something... The administration has a big dilemma with Lebanon because they support the government which Israel is accusing of the violence ... The Israelis claim this is all planned by Iran and Syria via Hamas and Hezbollah. And the fact is that both groups have said that they were not responding to the recent killing of civilians in Gaza but that their elaborate kidnapping plots were in the works for months, which the Israelis claim dates to a summit between [Syrian president] Assad and [Iranian president] Ahmadinejad in Damascus in January. This might be a little too neat but expect the drumbeat against Tehran's terrorism sponsoring to escalate as the nuke issue heats up..." (my emphasis)
Finally for now, when Israeli military crises heat up, we inevitably hear in the blogosphere about reports from Debka.com. This is a web site run by people with supposedly good connections with Israeli intelligence. They tend to promote a very hardline Israeli foreign policy position. I would caution anyone from using this site as a consistently reliable source. Sometimes they provide blatant disinformation. I remember seeing Debka.com pieces describing exact locations where Iraqi WMDs were hidden and also how Iraqi WMDs had been transported and hidden in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon. I occasionally look at the site myself. But I don't quote anything from it as a source unless I have a matching report from a more credible source. It does give some idea about what some of the very hardline policy advocates are saying.

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