Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The Feel of Concrete SettingYesterday, a slate of new polls delivered devastating news for McCain.
The Pew Research Center poll shows Obama leading 52%-38%, as doubts grow over McCain's judgment, age, campaign conduct and Sarah Palin.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Obama leading 52%-42%, as voters grow more confident in his ability to be president and commander in chief while McCain is plagued with voter concerns about Palin's qualifications to be president.
Even the less reliable Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll shows Obama leading 50.3%-42.4%.
All these polls seems to confirm the opinion of highly respected election analyst/forecaster Charlie Cook:
The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over... First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win. Sure, we have seen come-from-behind victories, but they didn't come back this far this late.
Fourth, just look at the money and spending. With Obama now outspending McCain routinely by margins of 3- and 4-to-1 in advertising in so many states, it's hard to see how the Arizonan's campaign can drive a message...Hmm, perhaps this is why McCain is cutting back ads in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota?
Poor McCain. Not only is he running out of runway, his fly zone is getting smaller and smaller.
Cook further predicts:
As things are going now, this election would appear to be on a track to match Bill Clinton's 1992 5.6 percent margin over President George H.W. Bush, the question is whether it gets to Bush's 1988 7.7 percent win over Michael Dukakis or Clinton's 8.5 percent win over Robert Dole in 1996.Twelve days to go.
More from Memeorandum here and here.
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No subject for immortal verse
That we who lived by honest dreams
Defend the bad against the worse."
-- Cecil Day-Lewis from Where Are The War Poets?
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