Thursday, March 16, 2006

The Bush Doctrine, official 2006 version: We gotta git Iran!

We have a new National Security Strategy as of today. Like any official policy statement, there are mounds of bureacratic jargon involved. And there's a short version which the White House undoubtedly hopes our "press corps" use to summarize the new strategy statement.

In the Introduction, we get this variation on the Bush Doctrine, which is said to have "two pillars":

The first pillar is promoting freedom, justice, and human dignity – working to end tyranny, to promote effective democracies, and to extend prosperity through free and fair trade and wise development policies. Free governments are accountable to their people, govern their territory effectively, and pursue economic and political policies that benefit their citizens. Free governments do not oppress their people or attack other free nations. Peace and international stability are most reliably built on a foundation of freedom.

The second pillar of our strategy is confronting the challenges of our time by leading a growing community of democracies. Many of the problems we face – from the threat of pandemic disease, to proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, to terrorism, to human trafficking, to natural disasters – reach across borders. Effective multinational efforts are essential to solve these problems. Yet history has shown that only when we do our part will others do theirs. America must continue to lead.
Two things jump out at me about this description. One is that I would prefer the "two pillars" of national strategy to be someting more along the lines of: (1) protecting the United States from attack; and, (2) preventing wars between nations, especially nuclear wars.

The other is that, on the face of it, these are "Wilsonian" goals, at least in the conventional language of the foreign policy mavens. Yet what is happening here is that neoconservative rhetoric about speading democracy through wars and liberation and active subversion is being applied to a doctine of preventive war and unchecked Presidential authority.

I've seen the Bush Doctrine called Wilsonianism on steroids. It's more like Wilsonianism on OxyContin.

The document includes a lot of what you would expect: praise of free trade, condemnation of terrorism, etc.

One section that surely deserves a close read is chapter 5, Prevent Our Enemies from Threatening Us, Our Allies, and Our Friends with Weapons of Mass Destruction. It reaffirms the 2002 doctrine of preventive war, being careful not to use that exact terms because in international law, "preventive war" means an illegal war of aggression:

It is an enduring American principle that this duty obligates the government to anticipate and counter threats, using all elements of national power, before the threats can do grave damage. The greater the threat, the greater is the risk of inaction – and the more compelling the case for taking anticipatory action to defend ourselves, even if uncertainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy’s attack. There are few greater threats than a terrorist attack with WMD.

To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act preemptively in exercising our inherent right of self-defense. The United States will not resort to force in all cases to preempt emerging threats. Our preference is that nonmilitary actions succeed. And no country should ever use preemption as a pretext for aggression.

Countering proliferation of WMD requires a comprehensive strategy involving strengthened nonproliferation efforts to deny these weapons of terror and related expertise to those seeking them; proactive counterproliferation efforts to defend against and defeat WMD and missile threats before they are unleashed; and improved protection to mitigate the consequences of WMD use. We aim to convince our adversaries that they cannot achieve their goals with WMD, and thus deter and dissuade them from attempting to use or even acquire these weapons in the first place.
And it makes clear that Iran is next in the crosshairs as a likely target of Bush Doctrine preventive war:

We may face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran. For almost 20 years, the Iranian regime hid many of its key nuclear efforts from the international community. Yet the regime continues to claim that it does not seek to develop nuclear weapons. The Iranian regime's true intentions are clearly revealed by the regime’s refusal to negotiate in good faith; its refusal to come into compliance with its international obligations by providing the IAEA access to nuclear sites and resolving troubling questions; and the aggressive statements of its President calling for Israel to "be wiped off the face of the earth." The United States has joined with our EU partners and Russia to pressure Iran to meet its international obligations and provide objective guarantees that its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes. This diplomatic effort must succeed if confrontation is to be avoided.

As important as are these nuclear issues, the United States has broader concerns regarding Iran. The Iranian regime sponsors terrorism; threatens Israel; seeks to thwart Middle East peace; disrupts democracy in Iraq; and denies the aspirations of its people for freedom. The nuclear issue and our other concerns can ultimately be resolved only if the Iranian regime makes the strategic decision to change these policies, open up its political system, and afford freedom to its people. This is the ultimate goal of U.S. policy. In the interim, we will continue to take all necessary measures to protect our national and economic security against the adverse effects of their bad conduct. The problems lie with the illicit behavior and dangerous ambition of the Iranian regime, not the legitimate aspirations and interests of the Iranian people. Our strategy is to block the threats posed by the regime while expanding our engagement and outreach to the people the regime is oppressing. (my emphasis)
The highlighted section is well worth noting. The strategy document says that the critical concerns about Iran can only be resolved if the regime restructures itself according to American specifications, i.e., "if the Iranian regime makes the strategic decision to change these policies, open up its political system, and afford freedom to its people". This is something very different than dealing with the risk of a future nuclear threat from Iran. As desirable as wider democracy and greater freedom for the Iranians would be, dealing with the potential proliferation problem does not require a change in Iran's form of government.

It's also worth noting that the aspirations of the Iranian people include proceeding with their existing nuclear power program, which enjoys supports across the political spectrum there. There is reason to believe that even the current rulers of Iran may prefer not to develop nuclear weapons. Yes, including the Holocaust-denier the voters there elected as president. See Juan Cole, Fishing for a Pretext to Squeeze Iran Truthdig.com 03/13/06:

It is often alleged that since Iran harbors the desire to “destroy” Israel [which Cole also identifies as a bad translation of the Persian orginal], it must not be allowed to have the bomb. Ahmadinejad has gone blue in the face denouncing the immorality of any mass extermination of innocent civilians, but has been unable to get a hearing in the English-language press. Moreover, the presidency is a very weak post in Iran, and the president is not commander of the armed forces and has no control over nuclear policy. Ahmadinejad's election is not relevant to the nuclear issue, and neither is the question of whether he is, as Liz Cheney is reported to have said, "a madman." Iran has not behaved in a militarily aggressive way since its 1979 revolution, having invaded no other countries, unlike Iraq, Israel or the U.S. Washington has nevertheless succeeded in depicting Iran as a rogue state.
The new document clearly reaffirms the primacy of preventive war in the Bush foreign policy:

Deterring potential foes and assuring friends and allies, however, is only part of a broader approach. Meeting WMD proliferation challenges also requires effective international action – and the international community is most engaged in such action when the United States leads.

Taking action need not involve military force. Our strong preference and common practice is to address proliferation concerns through international diplomacy, in concert with key allies and regional partners. If necessary, however, under long-standing principles of self defense, we do not rule out the use of force before attacks occur, even if uncertainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy’s attack. When the consequences of an attack with WMD are potentially so devastating, we cannot afford to stand idly by as grave dangers materialize. This is the principle and logic of preemption. The place of preemption in our national security strategy remains the same. We will always proceed deliberately, weighing the consequences of our actions. The reasons for our actions will be clear, the force measured, and the cause just.
Chapter 5 also repeats the administration's weak excuses for being completely wrong about WMDs in Iraq. This one is especially notable, arguing that it's Saddam's fault anyway:

... Saddam’s strategy of bluff, denial, and deception is a dangerous game that dictators play at their peril. The world offered Saddam a clear choice: effect full and immediate compliance with his disarmament obligations or face serious consequences. Saddam chose the latter course and is now facing judgment in an Iraqi court. It was Saddam's reckless behavior that demanded the world’s attention, and it was his refusal to remove the ambiguity that he created that forced the United States and its allies to act. We have no doubt that the world is a better place for the removal of this dangerous and unpredictable tyrant, and we have no doubt that the world is better off if tyrants know that they pursue WMD at their own peril.
Now, Saddam is an evil guy, his regime was brutal and yadda, yadda. But what were he and regime saying about the WMDs? We know now, and the Bush administration had intelligence on this before the war, that Saddam had ordered the scrapping of all WMD programs and related weapons in 1995. In 1998, Iraq blocked the UN inspection team headed by Scott Ritter from entering inspections sites because Iraq claimed that the CIA was using the UN team for espionage. This was true. The US goverment has admitted it, and Ritter has told the story in some detail. When the impasse occurred, Ritter decided to pull out his inspection team.

In 2002, the Security Council mandated a new inspection regime. Saddam all the while was saying that he had no WMDs. When new UN inspection teams went in, they were also finding no WMDs. The Bush administration insisted that Iraq did have WMDs and couched their claims in warnings of mushroom clouds. And invaded Iraq on that basis. There were no WMDs. Saddam was telling the truth about that. The Bush administration was not. But the administration claims it was still Saddam's fault because of his "refusal to remove the ambiguity that he created".

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