Iraq and regional war

One more from that September 2004 Chatham House report I quoted in the last two posts. This defines the "regional remake" scenario, aka, regional war:

The Regional Remake Scenario could take over from either of the other two if the regional dynamics unleashed by intervention in Iraq overtake not just Iraq but the regional state system. Newly assertive Shi'a consciousness in Iraq triggers repercussions among Shi'a communities around the region and thence a Sunni backlash. The Shi'a who predominate in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia (where the bulk of Saudi oil reserves are located) look to the pre-eminent Marja' (religious leader), Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, in Iraq for spiritual leadership and demand more rights within the Kingdom. Iranian Shi'a increasingly infiltrate the social welfare system and factional politics around the mosques in Iraqi Shi'a communities. Tehran maintains channels to all significant Shi'a and Kurdish leaders in Iraq. Radical Salafi Sunni Islamists fighting the Al Saud operate out of Iraq and assist tribal elements in the Iraqi resistance. Syria exports its unwanted nationalist and Islamist activists across the border into Iraq. A wild card within this frame would be the unravelling of Saudi Arabia, but at the very least it will remain a dangerous environment for foreigners over the coming months.

Ethnic tensions spill over between Arabs and Kurds in Kirkuk. The Kurdish leadership falls out with other members of the IIG [Interim Iraqi Government] and separates. Kurds from neighbouring countries either flee to Iraqi Kurdistan or try to emulate their assertiveness. Turkey intervenes. This scenario is the most transformative and beyond US or multinational control. (my emphasis in bold)

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