How many disasters can Bush and Cheney create?

Joe Conason asks, Attacking Iran: Are they nuts? Salon 04/21/06:

Aside from the obvious impact on America's international reputation and alliances, which have suffered a precipitous decline under Bush, there could be immediate and severe retaliation inflicted on coalition troops in Iraq. For anyone who cares about the well-being of our soldiers, any strike across Iraq's eastern border should be approached with extreme caution. That's why high-ranking American military officers are reportedly urging the president to avoid war with Iran.

Should Bush ignore their advice and order airstrikes, it is possible to imagine a disaster ensuing. At present, the coalition forces in Iraq depend heavily on supply lines that extend for 300 miles along highways from Kuwait and the southern Iraqi port at Basra. Mechanized units of the Iranian military, which currently boasts 800,000 men under arms, would not have far to go to cut those lines as soon as the United States started bombing. And their way into southern Iraq, cutting off the Al-Faw peninsula, would be paved by an uprising of the Shiite militia.

Faced with an Iranian invasion, the British might well be forced to flee. Our strained forces would have to move rapidly southward in large numbers to repel the Iranians - using equipment that is in poor shape after three years of constant use - or risk being cut off from their supplies for months. Airlifts are unlikely to suffice, and they would arrive under constant threat from shoulder-fired missiles. As one savvy observer put it, referring to the French debacle in Indochina: "Think of Dien Bien Phu in the desert."

If an attack on Iran provoked full-scale rebellion by the Iraqi Shiites, then an even worse outcome is conceivable. Our forces, along with the tens of thousands of contractors and bureaucrats employed by the occupation, might ultimately be forced to retreat from an Iraq in flames. That would mean horrible casualties and utter humiliation. Think of Saigon in the Green Zone. (my emphasis)

And, yes, it would be nuts to do this. But then, so was invading Iraq to do away with nonexistent "weapons of mass destruction".

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