The risk of an October surprise

John Dean in his bi-weekly column today describes the self-destructive trajectory of Bush's combination of reckless risk-taking and personal stubborness: If Past Is Prologue, George Bush Is Becoming An Increasingly Dangerous President Findlaw.com 04/21/06.

Dean's argument is based on political scientist James Barber's well-known schema of Presidential personality types. I have serious doubts about the usefulness of the typology in terms of individual psychology. But Dean primarily uses them as a way to talk about Presidential style, which is probably a more meaningful application. A few key quotes:

This Administration goes through scandals like a compulsive eater does candy bars; the wrapper is barely off one before we've moved on to another.

... Bush's defense of Rumsfeld [this past week] was entirely substance-free. Bush simply told reporters in the Rose Garden that Rumsfeld would stay because "I'm the decider and I decide what's best." He sounded much like a parent telling children how things would be: "I'm the Daddy, that's why."

This, indeed, is how Bush sees the presidency, and it is a point of view that will cause him trouble.

Dean's analysis does not promise good things for the fall:

As the 2006 midterm elections approach, this active/negative president can be expected to take further risks. If anyone doubts that Bush, Cheney, Rove and their confidants are planning an "October Surprise" to prevent the Republicans from losing control of Congress, then he or she has not been observing this presidency very closely.

What will that surprise be? It's the most closely held secret of the Administration.

How risky will it be? Bush is a whatever-it-takes risk-taker, the consequences be damned. (my emphasis)

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