Wednesday, April 05, 2006
Iraq War: Can a regional war be prevented?Juan Cole links to several articles today focusing on the next stage of Iraqi disaster, regional war.This English-language Lebanese site reports: Iraqi Kurdistan's President Massoud Barzani has asked leaders of the two main Kurdish parties to form a single government for the autonomous region in the North of the country.A Kurdistan united under a single government would be in a better position to wage civil war against the Sunnis and the Shi'a. The city of Kirkuk is a critical flashpoint. The Kurds also want to claim half of the city of Mosul. Both mean violent conflict with Sunnis; "ethnic cleansing" has been under way in Kirkuk for a while. Cole says, "Politicians need to find an equitable solution to sharing of Kirkuk oil wealth and of the province itself, before the whole situation explodes and causes a regional war." This article from the Indian paper The Hindu tells us that, not surprisingly, neighboring coutries are starting to work out details of their strategies and alliances for their own military interventions into the Iraqi civil war. And I don't mean as "international peacekeepers": Top intelligence officers from several Arab countries and Turkey have been meeting secretly to coordinate their Governments' strategies in case civil war erupts in Iraq and in an attempt to block Iran's interference in the war-torn nation, Arab diplomats said.The worry of this group is Iranian intervention in particular on behalf of the Shi'a. This group would be backing the Sunnis against both Shi'a and Kurds. Both Iran and Syria are excluded from these talks. But, as Cole notes, "you can't actually do anything useful about this problem if you don't involve Syria and Iran." But you can create a regional war by excluding them. This AP item of 04/04/06, Turkish Kurds see Iraq as an inspiration by Selcan Hacaoglu, talks about Turkey's concerns over Iraqi Kurdistan: While Kurds look to northern Iraq for inspiration, Turks see it as an example of what the future could bring: a collapsed central state and a brewing ethnic civil war.Cole observes succintly, "There will be trouble over this". | +Save/Share | | |
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