Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Iraq War: Can a regional war be prevented?

Juan Cole links to several articles today focusing on the next stage of Iraqi disaster, regional war.

This English-language Lebanese site reports:

Iraqi Kurdistan's President Massoud Barzani has asked leaders of the two main Kurdish parties to form a single government for the autonomous region in the North of the country.

“It is a historic moment for the Kurds of Iraq, who need to unify their ranks”, said Nijirvan Barzani, who will serve as Kurdistan's prime minister after being asked to form the next government. ...

On January 21, the heads of the two [leading Kurdish] parties signed an agreement paving the way for a single government in the autonomous region which has long been split between the two rival parties.
A Kurdistan united under a single government would be in a better position to wage civil war against the Sunnis and the Shi'a. The city of Kirkuk is a critical flashpoint. The Kurds also want to claim half of the city of Mosul. Both mean violent conflict with Sunnis; "ethnic cleansing" has been under way in Kirkuk for a while. Cole says, "Politicians need to find an equitable solution to sharing of Kirkuk oil wealth and of the province itself, before the whole situation explodes and causes a regional war."

This article from the Indian paper The Hindu tells us that, not surprisingly, neighboring coutries are starting to work out details of their strategies and alliances for their own military interventions into the Iraqi civil war.

And I don't mean as "international peacekeepers":

Top intelligence officers from several Arab countries and Turkey have been meeting secretly to coordinate their Governments' strategies in case civil war erupts in Iraq and in an attempt to block Iran's interference in the war-torn nation, Arab diplomats said.

The four diplomats said on Tuesday that intelligence chiefs from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and non-Arab Turkey held a series of meetings over the last few weeks to assess the situation in Iraq and work out plans to avoid any regional backlash that may result from sectarian conflict in Iraq.
The worry of this group is Iranian intervention in particular on behalf of the Shi'a. This group would be backing the Sunnis against both Shi'a and Kurds. Both Iran and Syria are excluded from these talks. But, as Cole notes, "you can't actually do anything useful about this problem if you don't involve Syria and Iran." But you can create a regional war by excluding them.

This AP item of 04/04/06, Turkish Kurds see Iraq as an inspiration by Selcan Hacaoglu, talks about Turkey's concerns over Iraqi Kurdistan:

While Kurds look to northern Iraq for inspiration, Turks see it as an example of what the future could bring: a collapsed central state and a brewing ethnic civil war.

Iran and Syria also are concerned that Kurds in Iraq's oil-rich north could set up an independent state if the Iraqi central government collapses - serving as a rallying call for their own restless Kurdish minorities and destabilize the entire region.

Iran's ambassador to Turkey, Firouz Dowlatabadi, warned in an interview published Tuesday that Turkey, Iran and Syria need a joint policy on the Kurdish issue or "the U.S. will carve pieces from us for a Kurdish state." ...

Turkey refuses to recognize Kurds as a minority, and speaking Kurdish was illegal until 1991. At the prodding of the European Union, Turkey recently has granted some cultural rights to Kurds such as limited broadcasts on television, but many say it is too little, too late.

Turks fear that increasing cultural rights could lead to the breakup of the country along ethnic lines. Stoking that fear is a U.S.-supported Kurdish region in northern Iraq, complete with its own government and militia.
Cole observes succintly, "There will be trouble over this".

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