The Israeli-Lebanese war

Even after three-plus years of war in Iraq, American ways of discussing the Middle East are still strikingly impoverished. People (including the President and the British and German foreign ministers) keep repeating that Israel has the right to defend itself against attacks. Why should we need to say that? It should be entirely self-evident. It's little more than a way of saying nothing. (Which, of course, in the world of diplomacy is often necessary.)

Something similar occurs with the ritual condemnations of terrorist attacks on civilians by Hizbollah. Again, why isn't it self-evident that deliberately attacking innocent civilians in a random manner is an illegitimate form of warfare, guerrilla or otherwise? And it should also be obvious that Israeli attacks on a poor civilian area of Beirut because it is heavily Shi'a and tends to support Hizbollah politically are not a legitimate military response to the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers.

The current Israeli-Lebanese war is a godawful mess, with the potential to expand into a much broader regional conflict. Americans should realize that a region-wide polarization of Shi'a on the one side against Israel, Sunnis and Christians on the other will drastically escalate the risks for American soldiers in Iraq.

And if Iran becomes part of a regional war, either through Syria entering the war (Iran and Syria have a mutual defense treaty) or by an Israeli or American attack directly on Iran, the Iraq War will have entered a qualitative new level of disastrousness. The three stages of disaster in the Iraq War are insurrection (which we have), civil war (which we also have now, really since last fall) and regional war (which we may have any day).

Despite the United States spending more than half the military budgets of the entire world and being armed with nukes out the wazoo, the US Army is very vulnerable to a major escalation by Iran in Iraq.


If Iran becomes part of a regional war, the Shi'a-dominated Iraqi government is likely to go over to their side. Iraqi government parties are expressing solidarity with the Shi'a Hizbollah already. Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, the Iraqi Speaker of the House, said this past Thursday that the trouble in Iraq is being caused by "Jews". Speaking of the insurrectionary and civil war violence being perpetrated - as he surely well knows - by Sunnis and Shi'a:

"These acts are not the work of Iraqis. I am sure that he who does this is a Jew and the son of a Jew."

"I can tell you about these Jewish, Israelis and Zionists who are using Iraqi money and oil to frustrate the Islamic movement in Iraq and come with the agent and cheap project."

"No one deserves to rule Iraq other than Islamists," he said.

The state of readiness for the US Army to rapidly augment its forces in Iraq to defend against a combined attack by Iran and the Iraqi government forces, including the militias of the leading Iraqi Shi'a parties, is illustrated by the following comment of Big Pundit Mark Shields on the PBS Newshour Friday. Shields is one of the better of his cohort in the punditocracy, although his syntax is often somewhat challenged in his live appearances:

And candidate George Bush ran in 2000 pledging a humble foreign policy with no illusions about nation-building. And today, after five years of a foreign policy, which I think even his friends and admirers would acknowledge has been aggressive, assertive, oftentimes arrogant, it's a humbled foreign policy.

We see the limitations of the United States. Militarily, we are tied down. We are Gulliver. And that is seen not simply by us.

We don't have - I was talking this afternoon to the Armed Services Committee. We don't have ammunition at Fort Hood for our troops to train with unless they're being deployed, immediately have orders to go to Iraq and Afghanistan. I mean, our equipment is run out.

I mean, and the reality is North Korea and Iran see this. And to compound, to complicate, and exacerbate, and make even more tragic, we have the Israeli, what's going on.

Hizbollah (the "Party of God", a Shi'a group) seems to be ready for more than a few days of skirmishes. The Lebanese government of Fuad Siniora is calling for an immediate cease-fire and for international assistance to bring the south of the country where Hizbollah holds sway militarily under the control of the government. A reasonable demand in theory, but unlikely to happen in any short run. It's worth remembering that one reason Hizbollah is held in high regard even by many Sunnis is that they are credited with having eventually forced Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

Hizbollah can't match the Israeli army in conventional capabilities. But they are not just a ragtag band of terrorists, either. For instance, on Saturday the group fired two dozen missiles from their base in Lebanon into the Israeli city of Nahariya. This isn't Timmy McVeigh and a few fanatical buddies improvising explosives out of fertilizer.

US interests, even from the relatively crimped viewpoint adopted by the Bush-Cheney administration, are not identical to Israel's interests as perceived by the Olmert government in this situation. Getting Syrian troops out of Lebanon and having a government elected that was not pro-Syrian was a positive development from the Bush-Cheney viewpoint, even though their claim that the invasion of Iraq facilitated it is mostly hot air.

But far more urgent is the vulnerability of US troops in Iraq and Kuwait in the event of a regional war directly involving Iran.

So far, the American position has been to back Israel but to timidly urge restraint. Jim Lobe suggests that even that modest element of restraint may represent an internal policy struggle within the Bush administration between pragmatists, on the one hand, and neoconservative and nationalist militants, on the other.

The military escalation, he warns, may well strengthen the position of the Iran hawks who are more than happy to have a military escalation with the US aggressively backing Israel, including direct military intervention against Iran and/or Syria.

The Arab League is asking for the UN to intervene. But as long as the Bush administration feels required to back Israel more-or-less unconditionally, the UN can't do much because the US can veto any Security Council decisions or actions.

The European Union countries have tended to be more forceful in their calls for Isreali restraint though they too have condemned Hizbollah's actions. Javier Solana, the EU foreign minister (although that's not technically his title) was planning to go to the area today. The EU is trying to preserve its role as an honest broker in the situation. Eventually, if the credibility of the US in the area continues its decline, the EU may wind up as the only party left who can play such a role, particularly where Israel is concerned. The EU has made significant progress in positioning themselves as such over the last year. As it is, much of the Muslim and Arab world seem to view the US and Israel as practically a single entity.

Right now, Finland, Sweden, Spain and Ireland are more critical of Israel, while France, Germany, Britain and Italy are uring the EU countries to try to remain even-handed, although the latter group also clearly disapproves of Israel waging war on Lebanon the way they are doing. Austrian Foreign Minister Benita Ferrero-Waldner is making it clear that her country is proceeding with arrangements to provide humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians, efforts underway well before Israel's latest attack on Gaza.

Angela Merkel's Grand Coalition government in Germany does seem to have made some real progress in improving relations with the US. The Bush-Cheney administration has asked Germany to make efforts to start effort to mediate the crisis. Germany is coordinating closely with Solano's efforts, which the Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier publicly indicated on Saturday.

Israel has attacked the Lebanese port of Tripoli and directly attacked a Lebanese army position in Talet el Jayar. This would be a counterproductive act if Israel seriously aims at having the Lebanese government establish a "monopoly of violence" in southern Lebanon, i.e., gain military control over Hizbollah. The Olmert government looks to be pursuing a strategy in Lebanon similar to that the Sharon government used in the West Bank against the Palestinian Authority: hold the government responsible for the violence by militant groups, but at the same time destroy the ability of the forces in the government who could or would gain control over the violent militants. The result is to give Israel a free hand: to make a new partition of territory in the West Bank, to set up a new military occupation in southern Lebanon.

Israel is striking targets in central Beirut in addition to the poor Shi'a neighborhoods.

Israeli attacks against Gaza are continuing, with Apache helicopters Saturday blasting the Economics Ministry facilities there.

The US and France are trying to evacuate their nationals from Lebanon. Not surprisingly, a refugee problem is appearing in Lebanon already. About 25 thousand Americans and 20-25 thousands French citizens are in Lebanon. Spain and Italy have also begun bringing out their nationals Syrian dinars are suddenly in short supply in Beirut as people desperately prepare to flee to Syria. But Israel's systematic attacks on the airports, the seaports and the highway to Syria are basically cutting off the most obvious exits from the country. Some are also fleeing to Jordan.

According to Lebanese authorities, an Israeli rocket killed 20 refugees fleeing southern Lebanon in a bus, including a number of children.

Sources:

Bundesregierung bemüht sich um Stabilisierung Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 15.07.06

Cowboy Diplomacy Is Not Dead Yet by Jim Lobe, Inter Press Service 07/14/06

Gewaltspirale dreht sich schneller Süddeutsche Zeitung/AP 15.07.06

Helicópteros de guerra israelíes atacan el ministerio Economía en Gaza El País 07/15/06

Más de cien muertos y 250 heridos en cuatro días de ataques israelíes contra Líbano El País 07/15/06

Parliament speaker blames Iraqi violence on 'Jews' The Jamaica Observer/AP 07/14/06

Poltical Analysts Discuss the Middle East, the G8 Summit and Valerie Plame PBS Newshour 07/14/06

Rette sich wer kann Süddeutsche Zeitung/AFP 15.07.06

Tastendes Europa von Martin Winter Süddeutsche Zeitung 14.07.06

| +Save/Share | |