The Blue Voice

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

State of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)

Our Establishment press has become so enfeebled in its ability - or, more accurately, its willingness - to report critical news about foreign policy under the Cheney-Bush administration that when it does do so, that fact in itself is news. That is really, really sad.

But let's give CBS credit where credit is due. Via Raw Story, CBS video: US to stay in Iraq 'longer than anyone's expected'; PM fears country 'nearly out of control' by David Edwards 10/31/06, in the "miracles never cease" category, comes a CBS News report that suggests - yes, actually indicates and implies - that the numbers that the White House, the Pentagon and the Republican news outlets like FOX News have been pushing about Iraqi forces are somewhat less than credible. (YouTube link below the fold.)

The latest is that after supposedly reaching the goal for the number of ISF (Iraqi Security Forces, including both army and police) that the Pentagon was aiming for, our infallible generals are now saying that they need up to 100,000 more. Sometimes, it may be tempting for those of us who have long become accustomed to heavily discounting the official claims on the Iraq War to realize the impression it leaves if you just take announcement like this at their face value. As Duncan "Atrios" Black put it, "We keep training Iraqi troops, and yet still we stay."

Of course, it would be far too much to expect that CBS would hit us over the head of the seriousness of the problem. For that, we can go to one of the few (maybe the only?) Iraq War supporter who has maintained his ability to look at events in Iraq as they are occurring in the real world, as opposed to what's happening in the imaginary Iraq of OxyContin-induced fantasies. Anthony Cordesman has been following the ISF training closely all along and provides a current update in his paper, In Iraq: Milestones, Benchmarks, and Real World Options 10/30/06.

Short version: The official numbers on ISF strength are now essentially completely bogus. Actually, he gives us his own short version in the paper itself: "To put it bluntly, US reporting on Iraqi force development has lost credibility."

Cordesman's paper is 10 pages long, and this is one that you really need to read the whole thing to get the full flavor of what he's saying. Someday, those rewriting the history of the Iraq War to justify new adventures just as foolish will say that war critics tried to smear the reputation of our courageous civilian leaders and our infallible generals. But we see here in real time what's actually happening. They've lied about progress in the Iraq War so much anyone who doesn't want to be suckered, or doesn't want to look like a fool in using their statistics uncritically, just has to recognize that a great deal of the official statements are flat-out phony.

CBS video on ISF training

More particularly, "all unclassified reporting on unit effectiveness has been cancelled". Think about the implications of that. Obviously, no one expects the Army to publish information that says, "The Iraqi Army unit stationed in town X in Anbar province is completely worthless". But ceasing all public reporting on the key, central issue of unit effectiveness means that any statements about the progress of Iraqization are little more than hot air.

But Cordesman does give us an idea of how little the official data mean. I'll say again, this is one that you really have to read to give the full sense of how bad it is. This paper should be required reading in any future college classes - especially those at the service acadamies - on how a credibility gap really occurs. This is not the fault of some Liberal Press conspiracy or failure to report the good news. The military itself has cooperated with the Cheney-Bush administration in deceiving the American public about this, and large numbers of people have now figured out that they're lying. This is not a problem that can be fixed with improved advertising or catchier slogans.

Here are a few quotes to give a sample of Cordesman's findings:

It is meaningless to keep claiming that the security problesm are limited to small areas and ignoring intras-Shi'ite fighting and Arab-Kurdish tensions.

[Quoting from a Pentagon report:] "Today, six of the 10 Iraqi divisions are in the lead; 30 of the 36 Iraqi brigades. Almost 90 of the 112 Iraqi battalions are in the lead, and we operate in support of them."

This statement is technically true because of the largely meaningless definitions now used for transferring responsibility and "taking the lead." The reality, however, is that transferring responsibility for security and saying that Iraqi units "are in the lead" has become virtually meaningless and hides massive disparities in the quality and effectiveness of many of the forces involved, most of which are far from being ready to fight in any meaningful way on their own. (my emphasis)

The 24,800 men supposedly in the National Police and the 28,400 men in the other forces reporting directly to the Ministry of the Interior are still being purged. Elements still present significant ties to Shi'ite parties, militias, and death squads. ...

The situation is far worse with the 128,000 men authorized the regular police and the additional 144,000 men authorized for the Facilities Protection Service. Most regular police are far too lightly equipped, have massive desertions, and whose remaining elements often serve sectarian and ethnic - not national - leaders.

The DoD [Department of Defense] quarterly report is anything but explicit about the problems in these forces. It fails to explain that “trained and equipped” manpower has nothing to do with the numbers of men still in service and effective. These are two totally different measures of capability, of which only the latter is meaningful. It ignores key problems in terms of corruption, actual manning and readiness, loyalty to the central government, and sectarian and ethnic divisions.

This means that the majority of Iraqi forces are now as much a part of the problems as the solution.

The "year of the police" still lacks adequate US teams to serve with Iraqi forces, and now looks like the "two to three years of the police," not one. As the Department of Defense quarterly report for August makes clear, there is no meaningful database on where the men trained and equipped for the regular police actually are, or on the effectiveness of individual units. (my emphasis)

If I'm reading that statement correctly, it means that while the official reports are just making stuff up to bamboozle the American public, the Pentagon itself doesn't even actually know to what extent they're lying, because they can't account for the supposed ISF members either!

Heckuva war, Cheney and Bush and Rummy! A heckuva war.

posted at 5:43:00 PM by Bruce Miller

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