Monday, October 30, 2006

Iran War: Scott Ritter and Seymour Hersh talk about the prospects

Seymour Hersh interviewed Scott Ritter on 10/16/06 about Ritter's latest book Target Iran: The Truth About the White House's Plans for Regime Change (2006). An audio is available from the New York Sound Posse.

It's an interesting but sobering look at the likelihood of an American attack on Iran and the potential consequences. Ritter thinks that an American bombing campaign would prompt Iran to shut off its oil exports and attack oil exports from nearby countries, including Saudi Arabia. Hersh seemed to think that was also likely, and even that Venezuela would reduce or shut off its oil exports in support of Iran.

Both of them also talked about the kind of pressure the US Army and Marines would come under in Iraq. Ritter stressed that Iran would go for a response that we Americans would notice as a cost and notice right away. And escalating attacks on American troops in Iraq and encouraging the Iraqi Shi'a to do the same would be a very high possibility. At that point, US options in Iraq will have shrunk from "cut and run" to something like, "Are relations with Turkey good enough that they will let American troops retreat through Turkey." I'm not exaggerating. It's a real possibility.

Hersh told a story I hadn't heard about someone on the the staff of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) recently sending an e-mail to JCS Chairman Peter Pace analyzing the military prospects. At the end, he made a point in a joking form by suggesting that in Iraq, we could say that we're really, really, really sorry we invaded because we really, really, really are. Then we could ask Saddam to step back in and set up a government, promise Halliburton lots more reconstruction contracts and get the hell out of there.


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