The Semi-Random Nature of Weather

Because of the large number of uniformed comments on several of our posts concerning Katrina's connection to other planetary concerns, namely human-caused effects like global warming and climate change, I am passing on this link to RealClimate's most recent post - Hurricanes and Global Warming - Is There a Connection? RealClimate's self-description is this:

RealClimate is a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists. We aim to provide a quick response to developing stories and provide the context sometimes missing in mainstream commentary. The discussion here is restricted to scientific topics and will not get involved in any political or economic implications of the science.

This is what they say, and it is also what they do. They are working with science, not ideology. Nor are they so technical that the non-scientifically trained layperson can't understand their language, charts, etc., as some of the sites I've been researching are. They end their analysis of the current research with these measured words:

But ultimately the answer to what caused Katrina is of little practical value. Katrina is in the past. Far more important is learning something for the future, as this could help reduce the risk of further tragedies. Better protection against hurricanes will be an obvious discussion point over the coming months, to which as climatologists we are not particularly qualified to contribute. But climate science can help us understand how human actions influence climate.

The current evidence strongly suggests that:

(a) hurricanes tend to become more destructive as ocean temperatures rise, and (b) an unchecked rise in greenhouse gas concentrations will very likely increase ocean temperatures further, ultimately overwhelming any natural oscillations.

Scenarios for future global warming show tropical SST rising by a few degrees, not just tenths of a degree (see e.g. results from the Hadley Centre model and the implications for hurricanes shown in Fig. 1 above). That is the important message from science. What we need to discuss is not what caused Katrina, but the likelyhood that global warming will make hurricanes even worse in future. Hurricanes and Global Warming - Is There a Connection?

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