So late Sunday night that it was probably Monday morning, I wrote a post called "What the Heck is a Pandemic?" It was by way of introducing the Flu Wiki site as a great source of information and news on the upcreeping avian flu horror that in all probability will take millions of Americans by complete surprise. Not that even the MSM of all sorts haven't been talking about it. Apathy and denial are what we seem to excel in these days, and why should this be any different? Avian flu? Feh, just another left-wing hoax, like global warming or peak oil.
Nevertheless, I have continued my reading on the subject, and propose to share some of it with you. None of it is reassuring. To start with, today's Progress Report has a nice recap of the current situation in the Health section: Unprepared for Avian Flu. Think we weren't prepared for catastrophic hurricanes? Well, "... according to Shelley Hearne, director of the nonprofit Trust for America's Health, it 'would be like having a Category 5 viral hurricane hit every single state simultaneously.' " Neil has already apprised us of how well-qualified Stewart Simonson is for his position, in his ongoing Rogues' Gallery of administration hacks, but Progress Report deals with Simonson even more harshly:
POINT MAN FOR PANDEMIC FLU FEARED TO BE ANOTHER MICHAEL BROWN: If the avian flu does reach the United States, the HHS official overseeing the response will be Stewart Simonson, Michael Leavitt's assistant secretary for public health emergency preparedness. Simonson's resume is "disturbingly reminiscent" of that of disgraced former FEMA chief Michael Brown. Though Simonson is "now the point man for just about every health emergency that may hit our shores, ranging from anthrax attacks to an avian flu pandemic," he has no background in medicine, public health, or bioterrorism preparedness. His chief accomplishment seems to be his position from 1995-1999 as legal counsel to former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, who was tapped as President Bush's first Health and Human Services secretary. (Simonson reportedly specialized in "crime and prison policy" under Thompson.) A fact sheet released by Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) notes that at a House Government Reform hearing on July 14, 2005, Simonson "claimed he had sufficient funds to purchase influenza vaccine and antiviral medication for the nation. The next day, his office submitted a funding request to Congress seeking an additional $150 million for flu vaccine and antiviral medication."
So, as it stands, this country has 20 million doses of the only medication that can treat H5N1, Tamiflu, and needs at least 150 mill. There is actually no vaccination for it as yet. As with most such things, it is not possible to predict with any precision exactly when such a pandemic might move across the globe, there are mutations that need to happen first. There seems to be a consensus (oh no, not that word again!) in the public health and medical fields that these in all likelihood are not far off.
At this time, there is no evidence that H5N1 has achieved the ability to transmit readily from human-to-human - a requirement for a pandemic to start - but scientists fear that this virus may mutate or swap genes with a common human flu virus and acquire that ability. A human infected with both H5N1 and a common flu virus could provide the perfect environment and opportunity for just such a recombination. The more the H5N1 virus spreads and the more animals and people it infects, the more likely a recombination or mutation is to occur, potentially sparking the next pandemic.
In my rummaging through the Internet I came across what I consider to be a very useful item. It's called A Personal Pandemic Preparedness Plan. It was first referred to on Worldchanging in August, in a comment to a post called Bird Flu: Can We Out-Collaborate a Pandemic?, a post that is useful in and of itself. Eventually it got posted on a fairly strange (IMHO) site, with which it seems to have absolutely nothing in common. Without Worldchanging's link I never would have come across this article. So anyway, don't say I didn't warn you. Written by someone whose Internet name is "Shaman," it is a very thorough plan that would be a good guide to preparation for any sort of catastrophe (natural or human-caused). Maybe this guy is a Mormon. They'll be the only ones who will be ready as a community for The Big One, whatever it may be, when/if it hits. This plan is, admittedly, prepping for a worst-case scenario, but we're making room in our cupboards for a LOT of chicken noodle soup.
And, oh yes, here (from Shaman) is the answer to the question "what the heck is a pandemic?"
A pandemic is an outbreak of a disease which spreads rapidly over a majority of the globe affecting vast numbers of people. Pandemic influenza is caused by a new, mutated strain of influenza virus against which people have no immunity thereby causing significantly higher illness and mortality rates than the typical influenza strains which circulate from year to year. During severe pandemics, as much as ¼ to ½ of the world's population may fall ill with death tolls in the millions. Resulting quarantines, banning of public gatherings, school closings, travel limitations, production interruptions, overtaxed health care systems and general panic would all lead to social disruption and economic devastation.
Throughout modern history, the world has experienced 3-4 pandemics per century. The last major pandemic, the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-19, is believed to have killed around 50 million people worldwide and over 500,000 in the United States. Two relatively mild pandemics followed: the Asian Flu in 1957-58 and the Hong Kong Flu in 1968-69 killing 70,000 and 34,000 Americans respectively.
A vast majority of world health professionals are now concerned that the next pandemic is approaching and have been closely monitoring what they believe to be the likeliest cause of this pandemic: the H5N1 virus, also known as Avian Influenza or Bird Flu.
