How dangerous would an Iran with nuclear weapons be to the United States?

Via Eric Alterman, here is a piece by military historian Martin van Creveld on Knowing Why Not To Bomb Iran Is Half the Battle The Forward 04/21/06:

Given the balance of forces, it cannot be argued that a nuclear Iran will threaten the United States. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's fulminations to the contrary, the Islamic Republic will not even be a threat to Israel. The latter has long had what it needs to deter an Iranian attack.

Should deterrence fail, Jerusalem can quickly turn Tehran into a radioactive desert - a fact of which Iranians are fully aware. Iran's other neighbors, such as Russia, Pakistan and India, can look after themselves. As it is, they seem much less alarmed by developments in Iran than they do by those thousands of miles away in Washington.

The main countries to feel the impact of a nuclear Iran will surely be those of the Persian Gulf. This is not because Tehran is likely to drop a bomb on Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates; rather, the Iranian regime may feel less constrained in dealing with its neighbors across the Gulf.

With Iraq in pieces, thanks to President Bush, the United States is now the only country that can safeguard the Gulf States - and with them the flow of oil - from Iran. America's armed forces, therefore, will have to remain in the region regardless of whether or not Iran goes nuclear. (my emphasis)

| +Save/Share | |