Sunday, June 04, 2006

Iran's oil threat

The Washington Post headlines it this way: Iran's Religious Leader Renews Anti-U.S. Rhetoric: Suggestions of Consensus Against Nuclear Program Are Called a `Lie' by Karl Vick 06/05/06 (accessed 06/04/06).

But it seems to me that El Mundo's story focused in on the more significant point in Ayatollah Khamenei's statement: Jamenei amenaza a EEUU con cortes del flujo de energía si realiza 'un movimiento equivocado' 04.06.06 (Khamenei threatens the US with cutting the flow of energy if it makes "a wrong move").

From Vick's article, near the end:

Khamenei warned the United States that Iran would respond to any "wrong move" by disrupting "energy flow in the region," an apparent reference to the oil tankers that transit the Strait of Hormuz.

"You will never be able to defend the security of energy supplies in this region," he said. "We would not initiate war. We do not want war with any state. We have noble ideas. We intend to use our resources to bring material and spiritual prosperity to our nation and make it a model for other nations."
Ayatollah Khamenei is the most powerful leader in the Iranian government. The clerical leadership, far more than the elected president Ahmadinejad, calls the shots on foreign policy.


Der Spiegel Online also found that the key element of the statement: Ajatollah Chamenei droht USA mit Öl-Boykotten 04.06.06 (Ayatollah Khamenei threatens the USA with oil boycotts).

The current Bush administration proposal to negotiate with Iran directly is promising. And at this point, the proposal allows the US to remain in unity with the European allies and with Russia and China. That international consensus though is a consensus for a series of graduated steps of sanctions, not consensus on a military attack.

But the precondition of demanding that Iran suspend uranium enrichment may be intended as a "poison pill" to position Iran as being to blame for the failure of negotations. As Jules Witcover wrote on 06/02/06 about Talking with Iran:

The switch [by the Bush administration to offering direct negotiatios with Iran] is perhaps an unspoken recognition that American public opinion, and the world's, are not likely to swallow easily another U.S. invasion in the Middle East, no matter what the rationale, unless a much stronger dose of diplomacy, in concert with others, is first truly exhausted.

The willingness to join the talks with Iran is also no doubt a measure of Bush's eroding political support at home, which for so long sustained his preference for unilateralist solutions in a world in which the United States is recognized as the remaining superpower.

The inability to put down the insurgency in Iraq, the continuing American casualties there and a public sense of stalemate have all contributed to the poll findings that a majority of Americans now say the war in Iraq was a mistake, and the aftermath badly handled.

For an administration that once failed to give diplomacy an adequate chance, I guess this is progress - unless this latest offer was made to be refused, just to assuage the Europeans. (my emphasis)

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