Monday, July 10, 2006

Iraq War: Then and now

"Then" in this case being three weeks or so ago:

"The US and Iraq are obviously conducting a major security operation. Reports indicate that a total of 70,000-75,000 men, two regular Iraqi divisions, two MOI security force divisions, and substantial amounts of US troops may be involved. At least nominally, this is twice the number of forces involved in the last major effort to take control of Baghdad, Operation Lightning, which was conducted in May 2005." - Anthony Cordesman 06/14/06 (my emphasis)
"Now" being today:

Al-Zaman/ AFP say that Baghdad was the site Sunday of the worst wave of of faith-based violence ever perpetrated by its sectarian militias in one day. Eyewitnesses in the Iraqi capital said that elements of the Mahdi Army, loyal to young Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, killed at least 61, among them women and children, on the basis of their religious identity. [Official Iraqi and US sources said these numbers were exaggerated, and most American wire services gave the number of dead as 42.] ...

Given the 30 dead or so in the afternoon bombings, and given that there were assassinations and deaths outside the capital (three in Karbala alone), even if one takes the estimate of 42 dead for the al-Jihad massacre, something like 80 Iraqis were killed on Sunday in sectarian warfare, and it could have been as high as 100. For my money, that's a civil war. - Juan Cole 07/10/06 (my emphasis)
See also:

Baghdad Jolted by Sectarian Killing Sprees and Bombings by J. Michael Kennedy and Borzou Daragahi Los Angeles Times 07/10/06.
Maliki appeals for unity as blasts hit Baghdad By Lutfi Abu Oun and Ross Colvin, Reuters 07/10/06
New wave of attacks hits Baghdad BBC News 07/10/06

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