Premature Speculation

Neil and Bruce have had some excellent posts on the subject of nuclear proliferation in Iran, and how the US might respond. I admit, I have been thinking about it as well, not just lately, but for the past year or so. I tried to read the article in the Atlantic Monthly, but it's really late and I have some nagging doubts about the whole idea that Iran is ready to break the code, and produce a Nuke next week. A lot of the frenzied talk is beginning to remind me of the midterm elections in 2002, when we were suddenly certain that Iraq was a threat, the sky was falling, and something needed to be done. Republicans seem to reach into their sleeves to pull out a national security crisis right around election time. And oh! isn't there an election coming up? Isn't it time for something new to fear, the Axis of Evil and the Mushroom Cloud?

Does it sound familiar at all to anyone?

Iran insists that they are developing nuclear facilities for power plants which is perfectly acceptable under the non proliferation treaty. We don't believe them, and frankly I think we have a lot of reason for concern because the President of Iran has said that Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth. This is not the sort of person who should be allowed to have his finger anywhere near the trigger of a nuclear weapon. Of course you could argue that President Bush should not be allowed to make military decisions after telling Tony Blair that he wanted to bomb Al Jezeera. And yet these men of questionable judgment have the ability to order the annihilation of thousands of civilians. This is what we call modern civilization.

It all sounds crazy to me.

The CIA has admitted it has no idea how close Iran is to building a nuke, they say ten years, Israel says six months. I don't think anyone knows for sure, so maybe all of this speculation is just a bit premature. Does anyone really know? Any intelligence that the CIA comes up with should be subject to intense scrutiny in light of their recent track record. Anything Dick Cheney says should be dismissed as complete crap, since he still insists that Saddam was responsible for September 11th. And as for George Bush, he still thinks that we are winning the war in Iraq, I wouldn't trust him with the DC police department.

Maybe we are jumping to conclusions, maybe Iran is baiting us. Maybe it is the middle of winter and we are giving into irrational fear. Maybe it's the end of the world. Maybe there should be some real concern about Iran and it's nuclear ambitions. Maybe Israel should give up their nukes, maybe everyone should have nukes, or no one should have nukes. Maybe the melting polar caps will plunge us into an ice age next year, and we won't have to worry about it.

Or maybe it's an election year and someone's yanking our chain.

It wouldn't be the first time.

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