Iran and Hizbollah

Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), who author and journalist Robert Dreyfuss describes as "a sober-minded conservative", has a new (07/15/06) paper that describes in some detail the weapons that Lebanese Hizbollah gets from Iran: Iran's Support of the Hezbollah in Lebanon (CSIS).

He expresses skepticism about the claim that Iran controls Hizbollah or that Hizbollah in the current crisis has been acting at Iran's direction:

US intelligence has not seen evidence that Iran dominated or controlled the Hezbollah, but for most of the Hezbollah's existence, it has seen Iran as a major source of money and weapons. There have long been cadres of Iranian IRGC forces, with elements of the Iranian Al Quds force (the IRGC element that trains forces abroad) present in Lebanon and training the Hezbollah for some time.

Syria too, however, plays a role and there seem to be regular meetings between Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah leaders. One such meeting seems to have occurred in Damascus between Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah and Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, with possible participation by Syrian and Iranian intelligence officers, shortly before Hezbollah's kidnappings of Israeli soldiers and the current fighting began.

From what is known of the Hezbollah, however, it uses Iran and Syria as much as it is used, and Hezbollah is more than willing to put pressure on Israel in a crisis or keep up low level pressure on Northern Israel to show it is a leader in the fight against what it truly does see as a "occupier" and "Zionist enemy." ...

Iran will certainly benefit from Hezbollah strikes in some ways. They distract from its nuclear activities. They show the Arab and Muslim world that Iran is a government willing to strike at the Israeli enemy - even though it is not Arab or Sunni. Israel's reprisals build Arab and Muslim anger against the US as Israel's allies, and make its charges that Iran is "terrorist" seem in Arab and Muslim eyes as if Iran supports "freedom fighters."

That said, Iran has been supplying rockets and UAVs for years. There is no evidence that it dominates the Hezbollah or has more control than Syria, and the fact its ties to Hezbollah are so well known creates more problems for Iran in European eyes, and raises more risk of Israeli strikes or US strikes in the future.

Until there are hard facts, Iran's role in all of this is a matter of speculation, and conspiracy theories are not facts or news. (my emphasis)

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